The 5.3% m/m surge in retail sales in January how quickly reopenings and the $600 stimulus cheques have fed through to stronger spending. The faster than expected fiscal boost means we now forecast first- quarter GDP growth to be 7.8% annualised, up from our previous forecast of 6.0%. But spending is likely to drop back in February and we are leaving our forecast for GDP growth in 2021 unchanged at an above-consensus 6.5%.
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