Although headline retail sales rose at a weaker pace in April, growth in underlying sales remained strong and past months’ gains were revised higher, which supports our view that the weakness in first-quarter consumption growth was temporary. Even pencilling in conservative gains in May and June, control group retail sales should rebound by close to 4% annualised in the second quarter, from 1.6% in the first, which would be consistent with a similar turnaround in overall consumption growth.
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