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Fed to reverse course in 2020

The Fed will leave rates unchanged next week and may well include references to being “patient” in the policy statement and post-meeting press conference, to signal more clearly that a March rate hike is off the table. With equity markets rebounding from their recent lows, economic growth solid, and core inflation close to 2%, we still think the Fed will raise rates once more, either at the April/May or June meeting. Further ahead, however, we expect a sharp slowdown in economic growth will force the Fed to cut rates by 75bp in 2020.

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