The marginal loosening in overall financial conditions since the second delay to Brexit until 31st October and the recent reduction in fears about the outlook for the global economy suggest that the UK economy should be growing much faster than the 1.6% annual rate recorded in Q4. That’s unlikely to happen until a resolution to Brexit has finally been reached. In the meantime, UK gilt yields, equities and the pound will probably be pushed down this year by renewed concerns over the outlook for the global economy.
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