The latest rises in gilt yields and UK market interest rate expectations have reduced Chancellor Healey’s headroom against his main fiscal rule from £23.6bn in March to around £15.0bn. And higher inflation and slower GDP growth caused by the energy price shock may mean his headroom will fall even further. This increases the chances of the Chancellor announcing a small or medium-sized Budget on 28th October, rather than a large one.
We’ll be discussing the state of the UK economy, our latest analysis on the Autumn Budget and what to expect from the Bank of England’s September meeting in a 20-minute online briefing at 2pm BST on Wednesday 9th September. (Register here.)
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