June’s strong rise in retail sales volumes suggests that consumers kept on spending despite the rise in energy prices since the war in Iran began. This supports our view that the economy performed strongly in H1 2026 and that GDP growth in Q2 could be 0.4% q/q or more. But with the drag on households’ real incomes set to intensify, we think consumer spending will stagnate before long.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.
