Despite being persistently surprised to the upside during the course of 2017, the IPF Consensus does not envisage that this year’s better-than-expected performance of the commercial property market will be extended into 2018. Rental value growth is expected to halve and capital value growth grind to a halt as yields edge up, giving a total return of 4.4%. We agree that returns are likely to moderate. But we suspect that the Consensus may still be underestimating the economy’s and the market’s resilience.
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