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Tightening cycle is now over

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting on 5th December. And while the resilience of trimmed mean inflation could prompt another 25bp rate hike across the first half of next year, we still expect underlying inflation to slow more sharply than the Bank is anticipating. Accordingly, we think the Bank’s next move will be a rate cut by Q2 2024.

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