Venezuela votes, Mexico’s gigafactory & inflation worries

Opinion polls suggest that Venezuela’s election on Sunday could bring Chavismo to an end, allowing the economy to open up and for sanctions to be lifted. But we doubt that the economic damage of the past decade would be fully reversed. Elsewhere, Tesla's decision to halt investment in its gigafactory in Mexico until after the US election once again shows how vulnerable Mexico is to a shift in US trade policy. Finally, the stronger-than-expected Mexican mid-month inflation figure has cast doubt over a resumption of the easing cycle in August. But if next week's Q2 GDP figures are weak (as we expect), we think that Banxico will probably press ahead with a rate cut.