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Brazil IPCA-15 (February 2023)

The fall in Brazilian inflation to 5.6% y/y in the first half of this month was driven by lower food inflation and won’t ease policymakers’ concerns about the strength of core inflation. We continue to think that Copom will only turn to monetary easing towards the end of the year, delivering 100bp of cuts (to 12.75%). Analysts have started to come around to our view.

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