The fourth virus wave has so far been largely concentrated in Osaka and a state of emergency declaration in that prefecture alone would not prevent national output from rebounding in Q2. However, as the surge in cases in Osaka is driven by more contagious variants of the virus, it’s likely that infections will soon rise elsewhere and we now assume that Tokyo will declare a new state of emergency before long, too. If that happens, GDP will stagnate in Q2.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services