Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
GDP growth appears to have all but stalled in Q3 but that was after a very strong first half. There are mounting signs that a virtuous cycle is forming between wages and prices. This is making the Bank of Japan increasingly confident that it can steer inflation, which is still well above-target, to settle near the 2% target over the medium term. We think that Governor Ueda will use this window of opportunity to dismantle the ultra-loose policy framework that was built by his predecessor, Governor Kuroda. We expect the Bank to end negative interest rates in early 2024, followed by a formal dismantling of Yield Curve Control by mid-year.
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