Concerns about a US recession have led to a sharp reassessment in financial markets; some of the shifts in the wake of the latest US non-farm payrolls report look overdone (and have to some extent reversed). Given that we still think a “soft landing” is the most likely outcome for the US economy, we are sticking to our view that US equities will rebound and rise further later this year and into 2025, while US Treasury yields and the dollar are now close to our end-2024 forecasts.
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