Asset Allocation Focus Rate cuts and asset returns This Focus explores the key lessons from previous Fed easing cycles and explains how these inform our latest financial market forecasts. In short, history supports our call that 10-year Treasury... 12th September 2024 · 18 mins read
Global Markets Focus Can US credit spreads really stay this low? US corporate credit spreads have all but unwound the rise they saw during the recent market turbulence, and are back at very low levels by past standards. We expect them to remain compressed over the... 22nd August 2024 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Focus Yield curve dis-inversion, Sahm rule & financial markets Concerns about a US recession have led to a sharp reassessment in financial markets; some of the shifts in the wake of the latest US non-farm payrolls report look overdone (and have to some extent... 9th August 2024 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Focus The US election and financial markets three months out Financial markets have largely taken the dramatic events in the US presidential race over the past month in stride. While the race now appears to be back to a coin toss, the prospect of a second Trump... 1st August 2024 · 18 mins read
Global Markets Focus EZ spreads on different paths after French election We have revised down our forecasts for government bond spreads in Spain and Portugal, but we continue to think that those in France, as well as in Italy and Belgium, are more likely to rise than fall. 31st July 2024 · 14 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Will rising JGB yields cause capital repatriation? In view of the wider interest, we are resending this publication to include clients of our Global Markets Service. We apologise to readers of our Japan Economics Service who are receiving it twice... 1st July 2024 · 15 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Shrinking BoJ balance sheet won’t have big impact While the Bank of Japan’s JGB holdings have started to shrink and will continue to do so now that Yield Curve Control is over, we think that the normalisation of the Bank’s balance sheet could take up... 26th March 2024 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM financial risk – An early warning system The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world. We have developed a comprehensive suite of indicators to identify early signs of a... 20th March 2024 · 17 mins read
Global Markets Focus Are China's equities finally set for a lasting rally? This Global Markets Focus looks at whether Chinese equities’ recent rally heralds the start of something larger and more sustained. It argues that they could continue to do well over the next year or... 15th March 2024 · 19 mins read
Global Markets Focus Market implications of Trump 2.0 We think victory for Donald Trump in this year’s US presidential election would lead to higher Treasury yields than if incumbent Joe Biden (or another candidate) won. In our view, another Trump term... 22nd February 2024 · 15 mins read
FX Markets Focus Would a US equity bubble coincide with a stronger dollar (again)? We think the current backdrop is not as favourable for the greenback as the one that prevailed during the dot com era, so we doubt the bubble in US equities we expect would be accompanied by renewed... 25th January 2024 · 11 mins read
Global Markets Focus Why we expect the S&P 500 to soar in 2024 This Global Markets Focus explains why we expect the S&P 500 to soar in 2024, in contrast to those who anticipate a much tougher year for the index after a banner 2023. In view of the wider interest... 17th January 2024 · 16 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Focus Will falling inflation ultimately push US Treasury yields down? Although Treasury yields have fallen back in recent days, the big picture is that they are still much higher than they were when headline and core inflation peaked more than a year ago in the US. In... 2nd November 2023 · 11 mins read
Global Markets Focus Three key lessons on geopolitical risk and markets The war between Hamas and Israel – and the potential for escalation to the wider region – has increased the uncertainty around the economic and financial market outlook, but in most scenarios is... 26th October 2023 · 13 mins read
