COVID Recovery Monitor

Our Mobility Trackers suggest that the recent rise in coronavirus infections and associated restrictions are weighing on activity in Latin America, emerging Europe and the euro-zone. In contrast, mobility in the US has continued to recover as restrictions have eased. Further rapid progress with vaccinations in the US, the UK, Israel, the UAE and Chile bodes well for those economies. But many EMs are still behind and struggles with vaccinations in the euro-zone pose downside risks to our forecasts for those economies.
Gabriella Dickens Assistant Economist
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Global Economics Update

PMIs show growth easing and inflation pressures rising

The flash PMIs for September show that the pace of growth slowed across developed economies towards the end of Q3, suggesting that the boost to activity from reopening is fading. But inflationary pressures show no signs of abating, with indicators of firms’ price pressures increasing again in September.

23 September 2021

Global Economics Update

Thinking through how we could be wrong on Evergrande

If, contrary to our opinion and the consensus, a collapse of Evergrande ends up having a significant impact on the rest of the world, it will be because it first causes either major financial dislocation within China or a property-led slump in China’s economy. The latter is probably the bigger risk for the global recovery. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Global Economics Update to clients of our Emerging Markets Service.

Drop-In: Evergrande – What are the risks to China and the world? Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and Senior China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard will be joined by Senior Markets Economist Oliver Jones to take your questions about the Evergrande situation. They’ll be covering the implications of collapse for China’s financial system and growth outlook, and assessing the global markets fallout. Register here for the 0900 BST/1600 HKT session on Thursday, 23rd September.

22 September 2021

Global Economics Update

Surge in gas prices adds to near term price pressure

In this Update, we answer six key questions about the surge in natural gas prices. The key point is that it will keep inflation in DMs and many EMs above central bank targets for a few months longer than we had previously assumed. Governments are already preparing to limit the economic damage and central banks are likely to look through this temporary spike in inflation. But this comes at a time when a host of shortages are already pushing up prices and adds to the upside risks to our inflation and interest rate forecasts.

21 September 2021

More from Gabriella Dickens

Global Economics Update

PMIs imply that goods shortages are pushing up prices

The global manufacturing PMI held broadly steady in May as a sharp drop in India’s survey was offset by rises in other major economies whose recoveries appear to be continuing unabated. Meanwhile, goods shortages are exerting upward pressure on prices, and there are some signs that they are also weighing on output, particularly in the euro-zone.

1 June 2021

Global Trade Monitor

Higher costs and delays are not damaging demand

The further rise in real trade in March suggests that external demand continued to recover, even as capacity constraints related to shipping were intensifying. And while shipping costs have risen and delays worsened in the weeks since these data were recorded, so far at least, there is little evidence that these factors are weighing on external demand.

26 May 2021

Global Economics Update

PMIs: supply is struggling to keep up with demand

The flash PMIs for May suggest that the recovery is well underway in those economies that are now on top of the virus. However, supply is still struggling to keep up with surging demand. And as well as exerting upward pressure on prices, there are some tentative signs that supply shortages are starting to weigh on manufacturing output, particularly in the US and the euro-zone.

21 May 2021
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