World GDP growth held up well in Q4, but there is clear evidence in surveys and other timely indicators that the global economy took a turn for the worse at the start of 2019. The weakness has been most acute in the euro-zone, where industrial production contracted at its fastest pace since the financial crisis in December and the PMIs have fallen dangerously close to recession territory. The Chinese manufacturing PMI has also dropped and the slump in Chinese imports towards the end of last year was a worrying sign that underlying demand there has weakened a lot. The US is a relative bright spot amid this gloom. Available hard data still paint a pretty positive picture of the US economy and business surveys including the manufacturing PMI have held up far better than those elsewhere. On balance, though, we still expect US GDP growth to slow later this year as the boost from previous policy stimulus fades.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services