Despite mixed news from the economy and growing risks to the outlook, we expect the ECB to reiterate that asset purchases are set to end in December and that interest rates will probably rise gradually from next autumn. It will stress its ability to change tack should any of the risks materialise, perhaps helping to reverse some of the recent rise in the trade-weighted exchange rate. But we think that the bar for the Bank to stray from its guidance is high and still see it ultimately raising interest rates faster than markets envisage.
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