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Euro-zone inflation falling; Sweden set for recession

Data published this week showed that euro-zone core inflation fell for the second consecutive month in May, but it still looks likely that the ECB will raise interest rates again in June and probably once more in July. Meanwhile, although Sweden’s economy posted a strong expansion in Q1, we think that it will fall into recession soon. Next week, we expect to learn that euro-zone retail sales flat-lined in April while in the same month German industrial production rose sharply. And data for Switzerland and Norway are likely to reveal that inflation fell in both countries in May.

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