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US oil production may have peaked

Although WTI crude oil prices have partially rebounded from their second-quarter nadir, oil production in the US has yet to recover. We suspect that low prices and producers struggling to source financing will mean that US oil output won’t recover to pre-virus levels by end-2022, if it ever does.
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OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug.)

OPEC’s monthly report for August showed that the group continues to produce significantly less than its quota and we expect this trend to continue in the coming months. OPEC is clearly worried about demand due to the economic slowdown, and that’s despite news of some gas-to-oil switching in power generation.

11 August 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

The rise in US crude stocks was in large part down to a drop in exports. More interesting was the jump in implied gasoline consumption, which probably reflects the recent fall in prices. This may not be sustainable if, as we think likely, Russia-related risks lead to higher crude prices later in the year.

10 August 2022

Energy Update

We’re less upbeat about OPEC oil supply

Concerns about the demand outlook have dragged the Brent crude oil price towards $90 per barrel this week. But, the supply-side concerns which pushed the price over $120 per barrel not too long ago haven’t entirely vanished. Indeed, following the OPEC+ meeting this week, we are now less upbeat on supply. Oil and the Gulf Drop-In (9th Aug): What’s the outlook for oil prices and what does that mean for Gulf economic outperformance? Join economists from our Commodities and Emerging Markets teams for this 20-minute briefing. Register now.

5 August 2022

More from James O'Rourke

Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (Feb.)

Growth in global steel production declined in February y/y. And though base effects will distort growth rates for a while yet, we reckon that China’s steel output growth will start to slow before long.

23 March 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Feb.)

Average daily global aluminium production inched up in February. And with ShFE and LME prices at multi-year highs, we expect production to continue growing in 2021.

22 March 2021

Industrial Metals Update

Tsingshan news to cap nickel price

News on a potential breakthrough in the supply of nickel matte from Tsingshan has dampened nickel prices. Rather than a step-change in nickel market supply, we reckon that this development will simply act as a structural drag on the nickel price.

17 March 2021
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