Risks to EM food supply have increased amid the likelihood of an El Niño, the end to the Black Sea grain deal and India’s rice export ban. Countries in the Middle East and Africa are the most vulnerable to lower grain supplies and many EMs (particularly in the Middle East) have a high import dependence on rice. Even if supplies are not severely disrupted, upward pressure on global food prices could prevent EM food inflation falling as far into next year and exacerbate external imbalances in North Africa.
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