The larger-than-expected pick-up in Polish GDP growth in Q2, to 1.5% q/q (from 0.8% in Q1), suggests that the risks to our forecast for GDP to expand by 3% over the year as a whole are now tilted to the upside. The backdrop of strong growth and rising inflation means interest rate cuts are unlikely any time soon – our current forecast is for the next interest rate cut to come in mid-2025.
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