Poland's election: opposition on track for victory

The exit poll from Poland’s parliamentary election on Sunday suggests that the incumbent PiS will fall short of forming a majority and that the pro-EU opposition will be able to form a coalition government. This would help to improve relations with the EU and unlock EU funds, which could provide a near-term boost to GDP growth. But we don’t think an opposition win materially changes the outlook as far as the public finances and inflation are concerned, which are likely to remain areas for concern next year.