Poland's election: a fork in the road

The outcome of Poland’s parliamentary election this Sunday will likely have a key bearing on the direction of economic policy, Poland’s relationship with the EU and support for Ukraine in the coming years. While fiscal policy looks set to remain loose in the near term whoever comes out on top, a victory for the ruling Law and Justice party could result in greater medium-term pressures on the public finances, more acute labour shortages and a slower pace of disinflation. In contrast, an opposition victory would raise the chances of Poland patching up relations with Brussels, unlocking EU funds, and boosting investment.