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ECB still likely to drive BTP-Bund spread back down this year

While the widening of the spread between the yields of 10-year Italian BTPs and German Bunds has raised doubts about the ECB’s ability and/or willingness to do “whatever it takes” to prevent borrowing costs in Italy from ballooning, we still think that the spread will narrow over the rest of this year as sentiment improves and the ECB steps up its bond purchases.

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