With the financial markets and other forecasters having come round to our long-held view that Bank Rate will rise to 4.50%, the real question is whether a 25 basis points rise to 4.50% at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Thursday 11th May will be the last in this cycle. We think there’s a decent chance it is, although if the economy and domestic inflation prove more resilient than we expect rates may peak at 4.75% or 5.00%.
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