Muted housing recovery won’t prevent rapid rate cuts

While we expect the RBNZ to cut interest rates by the most since the GFC over the coming year, housing affordability was never as stretched at the start of an easing cycle as it was at the start of the current one. Accordingly, we only expect house prices to rise by a modest 4% over the coming year and by 6% in 2026. A housing market rebound will boost consumer spending and dwellings investment and put some upward pressure on inflation. However, that won’t prevent the RBNZ from slashing rates.