CBN’s low credibility, Africa debt, South Africa activity

CBN Governor Cardoso’s remarks this week reaffirmed his ambition to restore the credibility of the Bank. So far, though, a clear strategy to stabilise the naira and inflation has been lacking. The stakes for the MPC meeting on Tuesday are high, with the threat that the CBN’s credibility suffers yet another blow. Elsewhere, African sovereign debt struggles have continued to garner attention. Ethiopia’s potential debt servicing pause, and Kenya extra IMF financing should provide breathing room for debt repayments. Finally, South African activity data point to stagnation in GDP growth in Q3, but easing loadshedding and, potentially, looser fiscal policy could bring an improvement over 2024.