Nigeria: inflation revamp unlikely to change policy path

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate came in at 24.5% y/y in January after the national statistics office made substantial methodological changes and, while we do not yet have the full information to predict the exact path for inflation going forward, fading pressures from a weak naira and petrol price hikes mean that the overall trend of inflation should still be down. That will provide cover for the Central Bank of Nigeria to declare its tightening cycle over on Thursday, albeit after delivering one last rate 25bp hike.