India Economics Weekly Debt moratorium extension, shifting geopolitical sands The likely extension of the RBI’s debt moratorium will help smooth near-term cash flow issues for firms and households but, in the absence of additional financial support from the government, this won... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banking sector risks, bumper food harvest Concerns about an impending surge in non-performing loans have resurfaced over the past week. We flagged this risk a few months ago but, given the increasing likelihood of limited fiscal support, the... 17th July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Are we worrying too much? In the week that India overtook Russia to become the third-worst affected country by the pandemic, it has been argued that measuring virus cases relative to population size would give a better... 9th July 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly China push back, food handouts ramped up Measures taken by Indian authorities this week suggest that India is decoupling politically but also economically from China and potentially integrating more with Asia’s other democracies or the US... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rural economy holding up as urban prospects worsen The rural economy has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks and we think it will continue to hold up relatively well further ahead. However, urban prospects look much more bleak, in part due to... 26th June 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Sino-Indian relations worsen, local lockdowns loom We can only hope that border tensions between India and China ease soon and there is no direct economic impact. But there may be indirect consequences. A further push back against Chinese investment... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Conditions slowly improve, interest waiver dispute The gradual loosening of strict containment measures has provided a slight boost to activity, but with new COVID-19 cases still rising sharply, the recovery is likely to be slower and bumpier than in... 12th June 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Downgrade, locusts, activity edging up The downgrade of India’s sovereign rating by Moody’s this week had little impact on financial markets, and we think that bond yields will remain close to their current low level over the coming months... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Looser restrictions risk faster virus spread PM Modi is likely to extend the lockdown when he addresses the nation on Sunday as there is little indication of the virus being contained. However, restrictions are set to be eased significantly... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Transport services resume, Cyclone Amphan The government’s decision to allow some travel services to resume will provide a small boost to economic activity, but there is a substantial risk that this will lead to a further spread in virus... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of the stimulus measures After weeks of inaction, the government has made a splash with its new support package by spreading the details across three separate announcements (and counting) this week. But as more details emerge... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Partial reopening doing little to boost activity While the nationwide lockdown has been extended again, the latest phase includes a significant relaxation of containment measures in areas less affected by the virus. In principle, this should ease... 8th May 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Dwindling hopes of a quick post-virus recovery The severe weakness in India’s labour market and growing risk aversion among banks suggest that the virus and the measures to contain it have already inflicted lasting damage on the economy. Even so... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal delay, rupee drop, Franklin Templeton A second fiscal stimulus package appears close but, a month after the lockdown started, any further measures now will probably arrive too late to prevent an annual contraction in growth this year... 24th April 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly April is the cruelest month Activity data for March released this week confirm a precipitous drop in economic output. And with the nationwide lockdown now being extended, far worse is likely to follow in April. 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Between a rock and a hard place The nationwide lockdown is due to end on Tuesday but with recorded cases of the coronavirus still rising rapidly, only a partial scaling back of restrictions is likely. With large parts of the economy... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
