India Economics Weekly Inflation risks growing, vaccine production cuts The RBI delivered no surprises this week. If a hike does materialise in the next few months, a shock from food prices would be the most likely trigger. Meanwhile, although the Serum Institute is... 10th December 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly There is policy space to cushion any Omicron blow Low vaccine coverage makes India's economy highly vulnerable to the emergence of the Omicron variant. The crumb of comfort is that there is policy space to soften some of the economic blow from a new... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Reforms on the back burner, mobile tariff hikes With key state elections coming onto the horizon, we doubt that any contentious economic reforms will be implemented during the winter session of parliament, which kicks off next week. Meanwhile, the... 26th November 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Sitharaman pleads, Das reassures Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman this week made an impassioned plea for the private sector to ramp up investment to support the economic recovery, but we don’t think that firms will heed her call... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Energy constraints easing, autos still struggling Concerns about severe energy shortages in India have eased this week amid encouraging signs of a rebound in coal inventories. But the latest production figures from carmakers suggest that global... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI liquidity measures, fuel tax cuts Recent measures by the RBI to further drain banking sector liquidity have led some to think that a hike in the reverse repo rate is imminent. But we disagree and think that liquidity-withdrawal... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil price risks manageable for now High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India, but prices would have to rise much further than they have recently for that to return as a... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Billionth vaccine masks worrying slowdown in rollout India this week administered its billionth COVID-19 vaccine dose, but that figure masks a worrying recent slowdown in the vaccination drive. And as a share of the population, the number of fully... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Industry stalling as services reopens further The impact of global semiconductor shortages on India’s auto sector was evident in the lacklustre industrial production data for August released this week. And with energy supply constraints also... 15th October 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Coal shortage could take steam out of the recovery India is the latest major economy to be facing concerns about energy supply, fuelled by a recent drop in coal inventories. With the economy very reliant on coal for electricity generation, persistent... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal boost, employment survey, RBI meeting Relative to budget estimates, tax revenues have been much stronger than normal at this stage of the year, helping to support the fiscal position. That supports our view that Indian bond yields will... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Domestic needs limit prospects for vaccine exports India is planning to resume exporting COVID-19 vaccines from October, which should help to further boost the trade position. But with vaccination coverage still low, the domestic vaccine rollout will... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Telecoms lifeline, autos constraints, bank liquidity India's struggling telecoms firms were thrown a lifeline this week after parliament approved a four-year moratorium on dues owed to the government. One potential consequence is that telecoms firms are... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout accelerates, MSP hikes muted India’s vaccine rollout has shifted into a higher gear over the past couple of weeks, but the slow start means that it would still take several months before a large majority of the population is... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of our GDP forecasts Much of the coverage of this week's Q2 GDP release highlighted the record y/y growth rate, but that was due to the slump last year rather than recent economic strength. We estimate that GDP dropped by... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Kerala concerns, Sensex surge Headline numbers suggest that the recent virus outbreak in Kerala has been brought under control, but that seems to be in large part a reflection of a sharp fall in testing. And with vaccination... 27th August 2021 · 5 mins read
