India Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes and concerns The approval of COVID-19 vaccines in India this week were quicker than most had expected, but concerns over the approval process and pricing disagreements underscore some of the challenges that remain... 8th January 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly A looser inflation target would not help The government is due to issue the RBI with a new inflation target next year, and there are suggestions that it is considering relaxing the existing framework perhaps by widening the “tolerance band”... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banks will get left behind in the recovery An emergency approval of a COVID-19 vaccine in India would reaffirm our view that the economic outlook has brightened. But while some have also turned more optimistic on banking sector prospects, we... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Looser restrictions allow recovery to continue The recovery in GDP was a touch faster than expected in Q3, and activity data released this week point to a continued rebound in Q4. How much output continues to be made up over the coming months will... 4th December 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Surging portfolio inflows, Q3 GDP, RBI meeting Foreign portfolio inflows into Indian markets, particularly into equities, have surged in November and we think they will remain robust over the coming months. Looking ahead, we agree with market and... 27th November 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly A dose of reality Newsflow continues to be dominated by the breakthroughs in the development of effective COVID-19 vaccines. But the collapse of Lakshmi Vilas Bank this week is another stark reminder of the extreme... 20th November 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes, new rupee forecasts The increased likelihood of an effective vaccine being developed is encouraging news for India. But even widespread vaccination would not restore India to economic health, and we would still expect... 12th November 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Biden presidency, food inflation, interest waiver We wouldn't rule out a Joe Biden administration taking a more collaborative approach to containing China's geopolitical influence than Donald Trump, which could help strengthen ties between the US and... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry opting for tricks over treats Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s comments that GDP growth would be “near zero” this fiscal year paint an unrealistically optimistic picture of the economic outlook and, viewed more cynically, may... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bihar election could revitalise reforms The state election in Bihar due to start next week will be the first of any sort since the outbreak of COVID-19 in India, and a strong performance from the BJP would suggest that goodwill for the... 23rd October 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Latest fiscal stimulus won’t move the needle The fiscal support package announced this week is welcome but, at just 0.3% of GDP, actual demand-boosting measures are small. Meanwhile, the latest inflation data for September showed a greater rise... 16th October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Over the worst? This week has brought some much-needed good news for India’s beleaguered economy. Activity data for September released over the past few days have been encouraging, while there has been a further drop... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Our thoughts on the MPC shambles The last-minute postponement of the RBI's policy meeting scheduled for this week is because of the failure to find replacements for the three external MPC members whose terms ended after the last... 2nd October 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Progress on labour reform, modest MSP hikes The three labour reform bills approved in parliament this week will do little to boost the slumping economy in the near term but, if the virus is successfully contained, these measures could deliver... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vehicle sales strength, rupee weakness The jump in passenger vehicle sales in August contrasts with other indicators showing that the post-lockdown economic recovery is stuttering. We suspect this is mostly a reflection of consumers making... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Becoming the virus epicentre India this week overtook Brazil to become the second-worst affected country by the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is only a matter of time before its total virus cases surpasses those in the US. This grim... 11th September 2020 · 5 mins read
