India Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes, new rupee forecasts The increased likelihood of an effective vaccine being developed is encouraging news for India. But even widespread vaccination would not restore India to economic health, and we would still expect... 12th November 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Biden presidency, food inflation, interest waiver We wouldn't rule out a Joe Biden administration taking a more collaborative approach to containing China's geopolitical influence than Donald Trump, which could help strengthen ties between the US and... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry opting for tricks over treats Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s comments that GDP growth would be “near zero” this fiscal year paint an unrealistically optimistic picture of the economic outlook and, viewed more cynically, may... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bihar election could revitalise reforms The state election in Bihar due to start next week will be the first of any sort since the outbreak of COVID-19 in India, and a strong performance from the BJP would suggest that goodwill for the... 23rd October 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Latest fiscal stimulus won’t move the needle The fiscal support package announced this week is welcome but, at just 0.3% of GDP, actual demand-boosting measures are small. Meanwhile, the latest inflation data for September showed a greater rise... 16th October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Over the worst? This week has brought some much-needed good news for India’s beleaguered economy. Activity data for September released over the past few days have been encouraging, while there has been a further drop... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Our thoughts on the MPC shambles The last-minute postponement of the RBI's policy meeting scheduled for this week is because of the failure to find replacements for the three external MPC members whose terms ended after the last... 2nd October 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Progress on labour reform, modest MSP hikes The three labour reform bills approved in parliament this week will do little to boost the slumping economy in the near term but, if the virus is successfully contained, these measures could deliver... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vehicle sales strength, rupee weakness The jump in passenger vehicle sales in August contrasts with other indicators showing that the post-lockdown economic recovery is stuttering. We suspect this is mostly a reflection of consumers making... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Becoming the virus epicentre India this week overtook Brazil to become the second-worst affected country by the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is only a matter of time before its total virus cases surpasses those in the US. This grim... 11th September 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economy to contract by 10% this year The shocking GDP data for Q2 and signs of a weak recovery have led us to revise down our expectations for growth in 2020. We are now forecasting GDP growth of -10% (previously -5.5%). Further ahead... 4th September 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly OMOs ramped up, lifeline for borrowers The RBI this week announced new open market operations aimed at stabilising long-term bond yields. We think this is a sign of things to come as the authorities aim to keep government borrowing costs... 28th August 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI dividend, agriculture outlook The RBI’s annual dividend transfer to the Finance Ministry will do little to ease the strains on the public finances, and the central budget deficit still looks set to widen sharply this year. On a... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Shadow banking strains are easing Severe strains in the shadow banking sector that were amplified during the initial stages of the coronavirus crisis are showing signs of easing. This should help ensure that the economic slump isn’t... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debt restructuring, car sales strength The RBI’s new framework for banks to restructure loans to struggling borrowers should help ease near-term cash flow issues for firms and households that have been severely affected by the lockdown... 7th August 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Recovery losing steam Various high-frequency indicators are suggesting that the post-lockdown recovery has stalled. And with new confirmed virus cases still rising sharply, the ongoing need for physical distancing and... 30th July 2020 · 6 mins read
