India Economics Weekly The broad contours of policy normalisation We’ve argued for some time that the RBI is in no rush to join several of its emerging market peers in tightening monetary policy, a view that has been reinforced by the dovish commentary in the latest... 20th August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout struggling for momentum Concerns continue to build over a new virus wave in India and adding to the worry is the sluggish pace of the vaccine rollout. The government has this week taken steps to boost supply, but they are... 13th August 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Relapse risks rising Economic activity has been recovering quickly since the second virus wave abated. But we've argued for some time that the rapid reopening increases the risk of new outbreaks. That threat is building... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bankruptcy code upgrade, RBI meeting The amendments to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) that were approved in the Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament) this week could provide much-needed support to India’s banking sector. But... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Activity comes storming back One key lesson from the past 18 months is that economies can rebound quickly once virus waves have subsided. Even with this mind, the pace at which activity in India has rebounded from its second wave... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bad bank starts to take shape The contours of India’s long-awaited “bad bank” have emerged over the past couple of weeks. The bad bank will help to restructure the loans of heavily-indebted firms and facilitate a clean-up of the... 16th July 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation concerns will prove misplaced A further jump in government bond yields in India this week points to growing expectations of monetary tightening, perhaps fuelled by concerns over rising inflation. But while CPI data next week are... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of the latest fiscal package The new fiscal package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman this week will only have a limited impact on both the central budget deficit and demand. It appears that the government feels it... 2nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Can the pick-up in vaccinations be sustained? India’s vaccine rollout appears to have shifted into a higher gear, with daily vaccinations more than doubling over the past couple of weeks. If this upturn is sustained, it would significantly reduce... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economic rebound underway, capital inflows pick up Real-time data show a notable pick up in activity over the past couple of weeks, most likely due to the easing of virus restrictions in some major states. There are clearly upside risks to our view... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Monsoon puts a cloud over vaccine rollout The monsoon season has begun in India and the extent of the rains has a significant impact on the incomes of hundreds of millions of families given the high level of employment in agriculture. A good... 11th June 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Lockdown extensions, industrial weakness Several states have extended lockdowns this week even as new virus cases continue to plunge. With local governments taking a cautious approach to reopening, the economic recovery is likely to be more... 4th June 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Activity bottoming out The continued drop in new virus cases has coincided with a bottoming out in some of the real-time activity data, and the evidence from last year suggests that activity could bounce back rapidly when... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Labour market taking a hit, Cyclone Tauktae High-frequency data show that job losses are starting to mount, but a key lesson from last year is that the labour market can recover quickly once virus restrictions are lifted. That provides hope... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Slowdown in vaccine rollout casts a dark cloud New virus cases in India remain extremely high, but there have at least been some encouraging signs this week that the current wave is close to peaking. However, lacklustre progress with the... 14th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Reasons for hope and despair New infections in a handful of key states including Maharashtra now appear to be stabilising but, with the virus still spreading in almost every other part of the country, containment measures will... 7th May 2021 · 5 mins read
