India Economics Weekly Taking stock of the stimulus measures After weeks of inaction, the government has made a splash with its new support package by spreading the details across three separate announcements (and counting) this week. But as more details emerge... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Partial reopening doing little to boost activity While the nationwide lockdown has been extended again, the latest phase includes a significant relaxation of containment measures in areas less affected by the virus. In principle, this should ease... 8th May 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Dwindling hopes of a quick post-virus recovery The severe weakness in India’s labour market and growing risk aversion among banks suggest that the virus and the measures to contain it have already inflicted lasting damage on the economy. Even so... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal delay, rupee drop, Franklin Templeton A second fiscal stimulus package appears close but, a month after the lockdown started, any further measures now will probably arrive too late to prevent an annual contraction in growth this year... 24th April 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly April is the cruelest month Activity data for March released this week confirm a precipitous drop in economic output. And with the nationwide lockdown now being extended, far worse is likely to follow in April. 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Between a rock and a hard place The nationwide lockdown is due to end on Tuesday but with recorded cases of the coronavirus still rising rapidly, only a partial scaling back of restrictions is likely. With large parts of the economy... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Early signs of lockdown impact in high frequency data A number of high-frequency indicators on electricity demand, vehicle production and traffic congestion all show that activity levels have plummeted since the nationwide lockdown began last week. The... 3rd April 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry will need to do more The Finance Ministry took its first shot at responding to the coronavirus outbreak yesterday but, at only 0.7% of GDP, the fiscal stimulus measures are small. Much more will be needed to prevent a... 27th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policymakers hold back, rupee drops to record low Both Prime Minister Modi and RBI Governor Das took cautious steps in their responses to the coronavirus outbreak this week, but left the door open for more aggressive measures. With domestic virus... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Travel ban, oil windfall, market rout The direct economic impact of the government’s suspension of foreign visas will be limited, but we now anticipate more aggressive domestic measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus over the... 13th March 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Virus a growing threat to domestic activity The jump in coronavirus cases in India this week underlines the threat of a wide-scale outbreak in the country. We are now working on the assumption that this takes place and have revised down our... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Gold price rally won’t hurt external position Gold prices have hit a record high in rupee terms in recent weeks, and are now far above the levels from 2012 when India was on the brink of a balance of payments crisis. But a drop in underlying... 28th February 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Trump trip, the “tunnel of testing trade-offs” Progress on trade negotiations will be high on the agenda during President Trump’s visit to India next week. But we have low expectations for any major breakthrough given the protectionist turn taken... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly BJP policy shift unlikely despite Delhi election loss The chastening defeat for the BJP in the Delhi Union Territory election has been viewed by some as a backlash against its recent policies including the passage of controversial Citizenship Amendment... 14th February 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Shifting policy stimulus, PMIs, coronavirus Satisfied that the finance ministry was doing its bit to support growth by announcing significant stimulus in the Union Budget, the RBI was able to focus on containing second-round effects from the... 7th February 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal policy to do heavy lifting, trade deal scepticism In tomorrow’s budget, the finance ministry will be trying to strike a balance between maintaining fiscal rectitude and supporting an economy in the doldrums. Some ambitious revenue projections... 31st January 2020 · 5 mins read
