India Economics Weekly Revisiting the impact of higher oil prices High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India but prices would have to rise much higher than they have recently for that to return as a risk... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Export strength unlikely to last Indian goods exports grew strongly in March, bucking the trend across most of Asia. But this strength is unlikely to last given a weakening of global demand and domestic capacity constraints. 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly World Bank too optimistic, remittance crown retained The World Bank released its latest growth forecasts for India this week and, while we wouldn’t get too hung up on small differences in the numbers, the trajectory of growth that the Bank is... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Sensex rally won’t last Indian equities scaled new highs this week, with the Sensex surpassing 39,000 for the first time on Tuesday. But we doubt that the recent rally will be sustained. From a valuations perspective, Indian... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly BJP election boost, fiscal tricks Reports that Congress has been rebuffed in its attempts to form an alliance with local parties in Uttar Pradesh would, if accurate, provide a major boost to Prime Minister Modi’s BJP ahead of next... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Spotlight on female employment The extremely low share of women in India’s formal workforce has become a talking point in the election campaign. It has far-reaching ramifications, including by keeping the economy much smaller than... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Investment recovery concentrated in key states India’s economic diversity and the decentralisation of policymaking power mean that investors should keep an eye on developments at the state as well as the national level to understand trends in the... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Trade considerations, services strength The decision by the US to scrap the preferential trade status granted to several Indian products has grabbed headlines this week. But the direct impact of the measures will be small. India’s exports... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Limited economic and market fallout from Kashmir Developments in Kashmir this week have left tensions between the Indian and Pakistani government at their most fraught in years, but the economic and market impact of the crisis is likely to be small. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly MPC minutes, farmer handouts, Kashmir The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s 7 th February policy meeting – in which rates were cut – reveal a significant difference of opinion between MPC members on the outlook for core inflation. We share... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Dodgy data, slumping Sensex Recent developments have again cast a spotlight on the accuracy of Indian data, but unfortunately, we doubt that the formation of an independent regulator, that some have called for, would lead to any... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI changes tack The RBI was able to point to a fall in inflation to justify its rate cut this week. But it also took a more sanguine line on the risks posed by still-high core inflation. We believe this will prove to... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Universal Basic Income is worthy but unfeasible The idea of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) in India has gained attention again this week. While a UBI could go a long way towards eradicating poverty and reducing the problems with the current welfare... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly IMF too optimistic, Goyal won’t alter the budget The IMF released its latest growth forecasts for India this week and, while we wouldn’t get too hung up on small differences in the numbers, the trajectory of growth that the Fund is forecasting seems... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Subdued outlook for exports The relative weakness of the rupee is doing little to boost India’s exporters, who are finding it hard to capitalise given a weakening of global demand and their own capacity constraints. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI coughs up a little cash, Sensex forecasts A report this week that the RBI will transfer an “interim” dividend to the government has been wrongly linked by some to the government’s efforts to get the central bank to hand over more of its cash... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
