India Economics Weekly Over to you, finance ministry While unexpectedly keeping rates on hold yesterday, the RBI put the onus on the finance ministry to do more of the heavy lifting to boost demand. So if we are right in thinking that the finance... 6th December 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Maharashtra drama a setback for reform prospects Developments this week have brought an end to the political gridlock in Maharashtra – India’s largest state by GDP – with the outcome providing a setback to longer-term reform ambitions at the... 29th November 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Phone tariff hikes, more data concerns A blanket hike in mobile phone tariffs of 10% as has been speculated in the media would add 0.2%-pts to headline inflation over the next 12 months. That wouldn’t be enough to weigh significantly on... 22nd November 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bracing for more weak GDP data After a very weak first half of the year, the latest monthly data suggest that the economy hasn’t fared any better in the second half. We are revising down our estimate of Q3 GDP growth to 4.7%... 15th November 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Turning away from freer trade India’s decision this week to opt-out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is not entirely unreasonable given the limited scope of the deal. But by excluding itself from the RCEP... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly More tax cuts, Sensex hits a record high Just a few weeks after corporate taxes were lowered, media reports this week suggested that further tax cuts are under consideration. While this would almost certainly push the central government’s... 1st November 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Mixed messages from state elections The BJP’s disappointing performance in the Haryana state election is a setback for the government, but its victory in Maharashtra still leaves it on course to gain a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper... 25th October 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Credit growth likely to rebound soon The continued slowdown in credit growth in September challenges our view that the economy is set to recover after a weak first half of the year. But with lending rates now beginning to drop in earnest... 18th October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Global Competitiveness Index gives food for thought The drop in India’s ranking in the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Competitiveness Index released this week is likely to reverse next year as reforms has been stepped up since the general... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banking sector warnings, fiscal deficit target doubts India’s authorities have recently received plaudits for their efforts to clean up the banking sector. But news this week of a fraud scandal at the Punjab & Maharashtra Co-operative Bank (PMC Bank) is... 4th October 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly The fallout from the fiscal bonanza The large-scale fiscal stimulus announced last Friday has continued to reverberate in markets this week. We are revising up our end-2019 equity market forecasts to reflect the recent surge, though we... 27th September 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Weak export growth to persist New tax breaks announced by the government and the recent weakness of the rupee will do little to support India’s exporters, who will find it hard to capitalise given subdued global demand and... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly The anatomy of the vehicle sale slump Data released this week showing a further slump in passenger vehicle sales growth in August partly reflects broader weakness in consumption. But with industry-specific factors also at play and other... 13th September 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Gold losing its shine, equities have further to fall Gold prices remain close to record highs in rupee terms, but the latest numbers on gold import volumes should assuage any concerns over the impact on the external position. Meanwhile, the Sensex has... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI transfer raises more concerns on independence The RBI’s announcement this week that it would transfer a record dividend to the finance ministry this year has a number of important implications. On a positive note, it will help to strengthen the... 30th August 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Corporate tax cut, Kerala floods If implemented, the corporate tax cut suggested by a government panel this week wouldn’t have a material impact on the fiscal position. But it would be indicative of a more accommodative fiscal stance... 23rd August 2019 · 4 mins read
