US Economics Weekly Drop in yields and oil price trump higher dollar We expect the boost from lower long-term interest rates to outweigh any negative impact on economic growth from the stronger dollar. The 10-year yield started the year at 3.0%, but most recently has... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update LME warehouse reform no longer so relevant The LME’s warehousing reforms should facilitate access to metal from its warehouses, a factor that was creating artificial tightness in the aluminium market last year. However, the market has moved on... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget deficits not a disaster, but spending growth to slow Saudi Arabia’s fiscal position looks set to swing from surplus to deficit in the near-future. This would by no means be a disaster as the authorities could easily finance budget shortfalls for many... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Supply not demand weighing on the copper price We continue to expect the copper price to fall further in the fourth quarter but this forecast is premised on strong supply growth rather than a sharp drop in demand. Indeed, if supply disappoints... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How will OPEC respond to falling oil prices? There are several reasons why OPEC members in general – and Saudi Arabia in particular – are likely to be sanguine about the recent slump in the price of oil. Output will therefore continue to respond... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What risks does Ebola pose to commodity markets? Aside from cocoa, the outbreak of the Ebola virus in West Africa has not yet had a significant impact on commodity prices. The main reason is that the three most affected countries – Guinea, Liberia... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US natural gas stocks still low going into withdrawal season Lower stocks of natural gas in the US compared to this time last year make it more likely that there will be a repeat of the price spikes seen last winter. However, even if this winter is mild, we... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack US dollar strength weighs on commodities Almost all commodity prices fell in September, largely in response to the strength of the US dollar and, in many cases, a strong supply outlook. Signs of slower Chinese and euro-zone economic growth... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia & Ukraine’s gas deal a step in the right direction The potential restart of Russian gas sales to Ukraine is a positive step in relations between the two countries and should help to put downward pressure on the prices of European gas and coal. However... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa comes back into the firing line The South African rand has come under pressure this month as renewed attention on monetary tightening in the US has put the country’s large current account deficit back into the spotlight. The latest... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Cheaper oil a net positive for global growth Rather than being a sign that global growth is faltering, the recent decline in international oil prices mainly reflects improving supply conditions. As such, it should provide a modest boost to... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Which countries stand to gain most from lower oil prices? Lower oil prices should provide a boost to the economies of Emerging Asia. However, some countries are likely to benefit more than others. Indonesia and Thailand stand to gain the most, while Malaysia... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong fundamentals will ultimately support palladium prices Palladium prices rose strongly for much of 2014 as rising concerns about supply attracted investor interest. In the last month, however, investors have been selling. In our view, solid demand growth... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar prices to remain less than sweet Like many agricultural commodities, sugar has seen a price rout as earlier concerns over supply have evaporated. Despite the benchmark ISA sugar price being nearly 18% below its 2014 mid-May peak, we... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt's economic recovery gathers pace Having suffered following last summer’s “second revolution”, the Egyptian economy is finally starting to gather steam. Activity has been buoyed by recent political stability and the government’s Gulf... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Focus on carbon emissions to weigh on coal and oil prices This weekend’s protests about climate change and yesterday’s UN summit are just the latest signs that the issue of climate change is being taken more seriously again. Whilst any sort of meaningful... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
