Commodities Chart Pack “A perfect storm” batters gold prices A sharp drop in the price of oil and the strength of the US dollar weighed on all commodity prices in October. Only the prices of those commodities with falling stocks or potential supply disruptions... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Renewed weakness in gold price has a silver lining Talk of a collapse in the gold price is overblown (or at least out of date). The price of gold has arguably held up rather better in recent weeks than many might have anticipated, given the general... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Bubble in US Treasuries should deflate soon If recent history is any guide, Fed tightening is unlikely to derail stock markets to the extent that many fear. Our view is that while US equities will struggle to make further headway, they will... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia & Ukraine opt for treaties over tricks The deal between Russia and Ukraine should ensure that gas supplies flow freely to Europe this winter and should also reduce the geopolitical risk premium currently in European gas and coal prices. 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis spurs central bank response Russia’s central bank had to deliver two things at today’s Board meeting in order to stem the slide in the ruble: an aggressive hike in interest rates and an immediate overhaul of the current exchange... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Little reaction in the Gulf to fall in oil prices The slide in oil prices this month has raised concerns in some quarters that the Gulf States will need to tighten fiscal policy. But while the prospect of this has been talked about in Oman, lower oil... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Nickel sell-off is overdone Nickel prices have been in freefall since mid-2014 as, contrary to consensus expectations, the market has been comfortably supplied and stocks have been rising. We think this situation will prove... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil price slump raises deflation danger The sharp fall in oil prices over the past couple of months will keep inflation across Central and South Eastern Europe extremely weak and could push several economies deeper into deflation... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Wheat prices to remain low despite weather conditions in Russia Amid reports that Russia’s autumn-sown crop is heading into winter in worse condition than five years ago, which preceded a slump in output and saw global wheat prices double, we caution against... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coal output will still increase, but at a slower pace The current slump in coal prices is unlikely to lead to a significant fall in coal production over the next year. Instead, output should continue to grow, just at a slower pace than in recent years. 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Support from the Fed’s QE is not about to disappear The widely anticipated completion of the Fed’s purchases under QE3 need not mark the end of the policy’s support for global asset prices. As it happens, QE3 was not much of a boon to emerging markets... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: weakness in oil sector set to continue Growth in the Saudi Arabian economy appears to have stabilised in Q3, as a pick-up in activity in the non-oil sector offset a further slowdown in the oil sector. But in spite of the relative strength... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis points to larger-than-expected rate hikes The continued slide in the ruble over the past few weeks has raised the prospect that Russia is in the grip of a self-fulfilling currency crisis in which the mere anticipation of currency weakness... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Falls in oil prices not enough to cut output We doubt that the recent fall in oil prices will have a significant impact on oil production over the next few years. The vast majority of global oil production, including US shale oil, is still... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Some (very) tentative signs of rebalancing in the steel industry Growth in global steel production, even in China, has started to slow suggesting that the much-needed rationalisation of the sector has begun. However, it is likely to be a slow process. This is one... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa outperforms struggling SSA markets Concerns about the strength of the global economy, alongside a number of other factors, have weighed on Africa’s financial markets over the past month. Amid the gloom, South Africa’s markets have been... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
