Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tensions with Iran to keep oil prices high for longer The high cost of oil reflects hopes of a strong recovery in demand at least as much as tensions in the Middle East. However, the price of a barrel of Brent probably still includes a premium of $10-15... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sustained recovery in BDI still some way off One commodity-related indicator that has failed to show any signs of a revival is the Baltic Dry Index of global shipping costs, which remains more than 90% below its pre-crisis peak. Indeed, the BDI... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Gains unlikely to be sustained throughout 2013 Improving business conditions and the positive sentiment in financial markets should support the prices of industrial metals and crude oil at least for the remainder of the first quarter and possibly... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook A see-saw year ahead for risky assets We now think risky assets will generally fare quite well in the first half of 2013, as tension in the euro-zone continues to ease and the Fed expands its balance sheet further. We expect these factors... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Risks to oil prices remain on the downside The improvements in global economic conditions indicated by the latest manufacturing surveys, as well as the positive mood in financial markets, have already prompted us to revise our near-term oil... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Jan.) The Egyptian pound has fallen sharply over the past month after the Central Bank of Egypt loosened its grip on the currency. We think the pound could fall by a further 10-15% to around 7.5/US$... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lumber: the Capital Economics view Lumber, or sawn timber as it is also known, is being added to our coverage of agriculturals from today. Despite a sharp rise in lumber prices last year and our expectations of only a lacklustre... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus "A year of two halves" The prices of industrial metals are likely to remain firm in the first half of the year, although we do not expect large gains. In the second half, most prices should drop back as the global economic... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strengthening global sentiment to support prices in Q1 Improving business conditions and confidence in financial markets should support higher prices for industrial commodities through the first quarter at least, but doubts remain about their... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do our new oil forecasts mean for Russia? Modest upward revisions to our (below consensus) forecast for oil prices this year do not radically alter our view on the economic outlook for Russia. The budget deficit is likely to be slightly... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Has the Saudi oil price target moved to $110? We continue to expect the price of a barrel of Brent to drop back below $100 this year, despite recent speculation that cuts to Saudi production signal an increased willingness to allow oil prices to... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts (Jan. 13) We have reviewed our key market forecasts. The new numbers are presented in the table on the next page. While we still expect government bond yields in the major developed economies to remain very low... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold set to regain premium to platinum later this year Substantial production cuts have been announced today by Anglo American Platinum, the world’s largest platinum producer. As a result, the price of platinum has risen above that of gold for the first... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain stocks lower but prices to stay on downward trend Wheat and corn prices have risen over recent days as the USDA revised down its projections for year-end stocks. However, we still expect prices to fall during 2013 as supply improves and the... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports lacklustre in December China’s imports of commodities continued to grow at a decent pace in 2012, setting new highs in many cases. However, the December data did not show much of an acceleration, with import volumes for... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Alumina: the Capital Economics view Alumina is being added to our coverage of commodities from today. We expect the price of alumina, as shown by the MB alumina index, to rise from around $330 per tonne (FOB Bunbury, Australia) at... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
