Global Economics Update Lower oil prices to have bigger implications for ECB than Fed The recent drop in oil prices is widely assumed to have strengthened the case for monetary policy remaining looser for longer. However, while we think it may encourage the ECB to loosen monetary... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil price falls sharper than even we expected We think that the recent sharp falls in oil prices have more to do with increased production than a collapse in global demand. As such prices may rebound a little this year, as the worst fears about... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower commodity prices to bolster consumer recovery Lower oil and food prices should provide a timely boost to consumer spending at a time when employment growth has faded and financial asset prices are falling. 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves leave Fed with a tricky balancing act The recent market moves could help the Fed to hit the employment part of its dual mandate but will take it further away from its inflation target. While we don’t think this necessarily means that a... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further interest rate cuts still likely in Chile Interest rates in Chile were cut by 25bp to 3.00% last night and, although the accompanying statement suggests that we may be nearing the end of the easing cycle, we expect further cuts over the next... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the impact of lower oil prices on Latin America The biggest loser from the drop in oil prices within Latin America will be Venezuela and, although the government may make its debt servicing obligations this month, a default seems more likely than... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lower oil prices not a major headache for the Gulf The ongoing slide in oil prices doesn’t pose too much of a threat to the Gulf economies. But it does reinforce the point that a key driver of the region’s economies over the past decade is weakening... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The winners and losers from lower oil prices In simple terms, the big winners from the recent drop in oil prices will be those EMs with large energy import bills, while the big losers will be the major oil exporters. But in reality the situation... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What impact will lower oil prices have on Norway’s property markets? With oil prices having fallen and costs continuing to rise, firms in the sector have cut back their investment plans. Whilst this will reduce economic growth more broadly, we expect the greatest... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Glut of grain and soybeans to push prices lower The outlook for global grain and soybean production received another boost late last week as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) further increased its estimates for the 2014/15 harvest... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lower commodity prices and what they mean for Lat Am Fresh falls in global commodity prices in recent weeks have stoked concerns about how Latin America will fare as the tailwinds from the global commodities boom fade. The short point is that regional... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Underlying inflation pressures building in parts of the Gulf In aggregate, inflation in the Gulf countries has remained stable over the past few months, helped by easing food inflation. But there are signs that core price pressures are starting to build... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese domestic demand remains weak The recovery in China’s commodity imports last month was mainly driven by an increase in processing and re-exports, rather than stronger domestic demand. Indeed, the weakness in China’s property... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Inflation still likely to moderate despite recent yen weakness The impact of the recent weakening of the yen on consumer prices will be dampened by lower crude oil prices. The upshot is that CPI inflation is still likely to moderate towards year-end rather than... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price slump shouldn't threaten domestic producers Canada's position as a large energy net exporter obviously means that it is exposed to any slump in world oil prices. Should the recent slump in oil prices persist, then that would certainly leave its... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Rising Indian demand not enough to boost coal prices Slower economic growth in China and the EU, combined with active efforts by these regions and the US to move away from coal power, have caused coal prices to slump dramatically over the last few... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
