Africa Economics Update Angolan SWF is a (small) step in the right direction On the face of it, yesterday’s announcement from Angolan President José dos Santos that the country has launched a sovereign wealth fund is a positive step towards better management of oil revenues... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent-WTI spread getting silly again The widening differential between the prices of Brent crude and the traditional US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is increasingly hard to justify in terms of the fundamentals of the oil... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil sector struggling to gain momentum Our activity proxy for Saudi Arabia shows that the economy continues to slow, as growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors starts to ease. Overall GDP growth looks like it slowed to around 4% y/y in... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian oil rush points to “twin-speed” growth Development of the Colombian oil sector will provide an important prop to economic growth over the coming years, but it is not unambiguously good news, particularly for non-commodity exporters. So... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How reliant are EM governments on high commodity prices? A sharp decline in commodity prices would cause the public finances to deteriorate in many emerging market countries, with the loss of revenues greatest in the Middle East and parts of Africa. However... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fall in commodity prices will bring some relief to Morocco Morocco’s current account deficit has been pushed up to a 27-year high by a combination of weaker export demand from the euro-zone and the higher cost of commodity imports. Nonetheless, an IMF funding... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fall in commodity prices will bring some relief to Morocco Morocco’s current account deficit has been pushed up to a 27-year high by a combination of weaker export demand from the euro-zone and the higher cost of commodity imports. Nonetheless, an IMF funding... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports flattered by temporary factors China’s imports of commodities recovered some ground in September after a poor August, aided by a seasonal pick-up in demand and restocking. However, there is little to suggest that this marks the... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA crop report suggests prices unsustainably high The gains in wheat, soybean and (especially) corn prices today may give the impression that the latest “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates” published by the United States Department for... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Macroeconomic backdrop for industrial metals to remain poor The impact of QE3 will be a major talking point during LME Week, which starts next Monday. However, even more purchases of relatively liquid US assets by the Fed will do nothing to address the... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Tokyo gatherings unlikely to amount to much Finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 meet tomorrow in Tokyo ahead of the annual gathering of the IMF and the World Bank there, which concludes on Sunday. Although these meetings can very... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador's oil-fired boom running out of steam The latest data confirm that Ecuador’s recent commodity boom has faded in 2012. With elections looming early next year, the main risk is that attempts to revive growth via looser fiscal policy will... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why is global aluminium output still rising? Despite aluminium prices on the LME having been below costs for many smelters for over a year, global aluminium production has risen due to record premiums, increased output in western China and... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran premium in oil prices set to fall The high cost of oil reflects hopes of a strong recovery in demand at least as much as fears of a military conflict between the West and Iran. However, the price of a barrel of Brent probably still... 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Boost from QE3 already starting to fade Confirmation of the launch of QE3 by the US Fed appears to have marked at least a temporary peak in many commodity prices, with the focus quickly returning to the underlying weaknesses in economic and... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch QE3 boost to be short-lived Rather than providing a further boost to oil prices, the announcement of open-ended quantitative easing (QE3) by the US Fed appears to have marked at least a temporary peak. The focus is already... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
