US Economics Focus Rising oil and gas production to have small impact on GDP Even if US oil and gas production does continue to expand at the breakneck pace seen over the past few years, the overall impact on GDP growth will be muted. The mining sector as a whole accounted for... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Softening of Basel liquidity rules not such a big deal The expansion in the range of assets that can be used to meet the new liquidity requirements under Basel III, combined with their slower implementation, is a small positive for the banking sector, but... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Bullish headlines conceal underlying weaknesses The performances of many commodity prices have been more nuanced than the headlines might suggest. This is clearest in the case of agriculturals, where far more attention is still being paid to the... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is there any more upside for gold? The price of gold looks set to end 2012 on a low note, perhaps below $1,700 per ounce, but we continue to expect the precious metal to reach new record highs of at least $2,000 in 2013. The monetary... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rhodium: the Capital Economics view Rhodium is being added to our coverage of precious metals from today. Despite our expectations of a deep recession in the euro-zone and lacklustre growth elsewhere, we believe that the price of... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch The outlook for 2013 This edition of our monthly Energy Watch looks at the prospects for energy prices in 2013, focusing on crude oil, coal and US natural gas. We present some central forecasts, compare them to the... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Any major boost to GDP from shale gas still some way off As well as raising hopes about the UK’s future energy independence, the Government’s decision to allow “fracking” in the North West of England to recommence has fostered optimism that the UK economy... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs rise but support for commodities to be short-lived Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs for China and the euro-zone have both improved, but they remain at relatively low levels. Other recent data suggest that China’s recovery still lacks momentum and that... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does Fed policy mean for commodities? The muted reaction to the Fed’s announcement yesterday supports our view that the boost to commodity prices from exceptionally loose US monetary policy has now largely run its course. The monetary... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does the surge in China's imports mean for rice? Mainland China’s net rice imports will have risen to record levels in 2012, whereas the country has traditionally been a net exporter. At first sight this might have been expected to have a major... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA report further eases supply fears The latest “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates” published today by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) has relieved concerns about the supply of wheat, whilst the prospects... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chavez's absence adds to the uncertainty in Venezuela Venezuelan economic policy looks set to remain in limbo until the future of the President Hugo Chávez is resolved. Devaluation of the bolivar, which we had expected early next year, may be delayed... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC decisions won’t prevent oil price falls This week’s OPEC meeting will be dominated by the tricky choice of a new Secretary-General, while the decision on output should be relatively simple. We agree with the consensus that the notional... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports disappoint Today’s Chinese trade data highlight the continued weakness in demand in the largest global consumer of commodities. The headline data did show commodity imports rising month-on-month but after... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s the right benchmark for US oil prices? The US Energy Information Administration’s recent decision to switch to Brent rather than West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as its reference oil price has reignited the debate about the appropriate... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Molybdenum: the Capital Economics view Molybdenum is being added to our coverage of industrial metals from today. We expect the molybdenum price to fall by at least another 10% next year, to $9.50 per pound ($21,000 per tonne), as Chinese... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
