Commodities Update Coffee market set to tighten Notwithstanding the possibility of consecutive weather-damaged harvests in Brazil, given the combination of this year’s fall in Brazilian output in advance of an “off” year, and pressure on stocks as... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Falling commodity prices to keep Asian inflation low Declines in commodity prices have helped push down inflation across Emerging Asia in recent months. We expect inflation to remain low over the next year, which will leave room for central banks to... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed weakness in Germany hits Central Europe The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Restructuring petro-loans won’t save Venezuela from default On the face of it, the Venezuelan government’s restructuring of petro-loans from China should boost foreign currency revenues and ease the economy’s severe dollar drought. But in reality, the deal... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Low oil prices provide relief for MENA’s resource-poor economies In contrast to the Gulf, the rest of the MENA region stands to gain from the recent fall in oil prices. That being said, a period of low oil prices alone won’t be sufficient to reduce these economies’... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low EM inflation set to persist Inflation eased further in September across most of the emerging world, in aggregate reaching its lowest rate in nearly five years. Falling commodity prices and weak underlying price pressures mean... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Falling commodity prices not enough to pull SA’s inflation down Recent movements in commodity prices are unlikely to be enough to lower inflation in South Africa substantially. Indeed, exchange rate weakness and upcoming energy price hikes will put further upward... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower fuel subsidies to dampen oil demand growth The recent sharp fall in oil prices should make it easier for governments in developing countries to reduce oil subsidies without dramatically increasing inflation. Meanwhile, a reduction in oil... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs provide little support to commodities prices While China’s headline flash PMI rose in October, falls in the activity and new orders components do not bode well for commodities prices. Meanwhile, the euro-zone’s flash PMI suggests the region... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Equities in the Gulf hit by falling oil prices Despite recovering a little in recent days, it’s been a torrid month for stock markets across the MENA region. In part, this has reflected the broader sell-off in EM financial markets. But in the Gulf... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Cheaper commodities to allow rates to stay lower for longer We estimate that the recent fall in commodity prices could knock 1%-pt off Emerging Market (EM) inflation over the coming months. With slower economic growth set to keep a lid on core inflation in... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Poor supply prospects should underpin lead prices Lead prices have fallen this year, in large part owing to slower demand growth in emerging economies. However, supply prospects (both mined and refined) are deteriorating and official stocks are low... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Gulf: Fall in oil prices unlikely to trigger another “lost decade” Concerns that the recent fall in oil prices could lead to another “lost decade” for the Gulf, similar to the 1980s, are probably overdone. The region’s large accumulated savings mean that most... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Why fuel subsidy reform matters for India and Indonesia Indian consumer price inflation fell to its slowest pace on record in September. With the latest data also pointing to continued weakness in the industrial sector, we remain of the view that interest... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus How and why lower oil prices matter for Russia’s economy The fall in oil prices over the past month or so poses another headwind for Russia’s struggling economy. The drop in prices so far is unlikely to have a major bearing on the immediate outlook –... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Time to look again at commodities The hype about a supposed “super-cycle” at the start of the decade has been replaced by fears of a prolonged period of “secular stagnation” in commodity prices. As usual, the reality lies somewhere in... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
