Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Split in EM export performance is widening The value of EM exports continued to fall in annual terms in December, with oil producers faring especially poorly. The early signs are that Asia's manufacturing-oriented economies will report weak... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another week of record stock levels and production will disappoint those hoping that last week’s surge in prices was the start of a new bull market. However, the rate of growth of stocks and output is... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Higher demand can’t offset rise in production In spite of higher forecast demand, the USDA has also revised up its estimates of year-end stocks for corn and wheat. And with ample soybean supplies, we continue to expect prices of all three to fall... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks failing to signal demand trends Stock movements, in general, continue to tell us more about the attractiveness of holding commodity assets off-market rather than anything about underlying physical demand. However, low official... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Oil glut likely to continue in the first half of 2015 Oversupply in the oil market will probably continue until demand picks up and US oil production growth begins to ease off in the summer. This will limit the upside for prices in the coming months. 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Rate hike could still come sooner than markets think Markets have revised their expectations for interest rates significantly, such that they now expect the first rise in Bank Rate to occur in Q1 next year, some four months earlier than they did at the... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Dec.) December’s rise in South African manufacturing production showed that the sector ended the year on a high. There are also signs that manufacturers started this year fairly strongly. Although growth is... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery set to be slow-going Following last year’s sharp downturn, economic growth in Latin America should improve this year and next. But the pace of the recovery will be slow-going and GDP growth will remain far weaker than... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook 2015 to be a year of recovering prices 2014 was the fourth successive year of poor performance by commodities, especially relative to bonds and equities, but we believe 2015 will be the year when many finally turn the corner. The recent... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lift in wheat price is not the start of an upward trend The price of US wheat posted its first weekly rise since mid-December last week, rallying close to 5%. However, with ample global supplies, we think this rise will prove to be temporary. 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is deflation here to stay this time? The latest bout of deflation in the euro-zone looks set to last rather longer than the brief period of falling prices seen back in 2009. With vast amounts of slack in the economy and inflation... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports slip from December record While China’s commodity import volumes dipped in January, they are still holding up. With the exception of coal, the latest data underpin our expectation that China’s commodity imports will continue... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly A sustained rally in oil prices? Oil prices have rebounded by over 20% in the last week during a period of highly volatile trading. The rally was sparked by growing evidence of declining US rig counts and multiple announcements of... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How big a threat is Fed tightening to gold prices? If nothing else changes, earlier hikes in interest rates by the US central bank would be likely to undermine the prices of precious metals, notably gold and silver. The 2% fall in the gold price after... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Positive sentiment towards agriculturals fades Abundant supplies of many agricultural commodities and concerns about weak demand are likely to be behind the general deterioration in sentiment towards agriculturals in recent weeks. Indeed, there... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices to determine interest rate moves in Russia The fact that the ruble has strengthened since Russia’s surprise cut in interest rates last Friday is more a reflection of the subsequent rebound in global oil prices than it is an endorsement by... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
