Commodities Update Chinese stockpiling to support demand We expect additional Chinese stockpiling to increase demand for agricultural commodities over the next few years. This should add a bit of support to prices, but the fundamentals of individual... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity import data still distorted by holidays China’s commodity import volumes fell in February but this was hardly surprising given the long mid-month holiday. We expect demand to start recovering in March, boosted by low prevailing prices. 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa faces lasting energy crisis South Africa’s energy crisis has grabbed headlines over the past month, with Finance Minister Nlahnlah Nene citing the situation as one factor behind the government decision to cut its 2015 growth... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update China unlikely to write a blank cheque for Lat Am The slump in commodity prices since last summer has exposed fragilities in the balance of payments of several economies in Latin America. But while that has left some governments looking to China for... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Payrolls data are not all bad news Most commodity prices fell this week even before the strong US payrolls data raised expectations of early Fed tightening and further dollar strength. While recognising that both developments have... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Why haven’t households spent their gasoline windfall? With the overall economy in good shape, it is only a matter of time before households start to spend more of the cash freed up by the plunge in gasoline prices. Indeed, in recent years households have... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Little to support US steel prices, for now US steel prices have plummeted since late 2014 but perhaps what is more surprising is the fact that they had not fallen earlier. Market conditions suggest prices will continue to struggle this year... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Was that it? The end of the so-called income recession late last year appears to suggest that the direct hit to the Australian economy from the fall in the prices of key commodity exports has already come and gone... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Next CBK Governor to face less pressure to start tightening cycle It looks more likely than not that Dr. Haron Sirima will replace Prof. Njuguna Ndung’u as Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya, and his appointment is likely be welcomed by the markets as a safe pair... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update China takes another step away from coal power We expect global demand for coal to be subdued and prices to fall further over the next few years as China continues to turn its back on coal. However, the downside should be limited by growing demand... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tin prices to rise even without an Indonesian export ban After recording a small surplus in 2014, we expect the tin market to plunge back into deficit this year and prices to rise. As such, any attempt by Indonesia’s producers to curb exports may be... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Low commodity prices spell an era of weaker growth for SSA Recent declines in commodity prices will drag on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa this year. What’s more, growth in agriculture and mining during the commodities boom came at the expense of the... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf public investment projects to take the hit from low oil prices The Gulf countries should be able to stomach low prices for the next few years at least, but further down the line some form of adjustment is likely to be needed and we think that fiscal policy will... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Copper provides a glimmer of hope A lack of Chinese buyers because of the new year holiday was a key factor weighing on metals prices in February. Only copper prices rose, perhaps in part reflecting encouraging economic data out of... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks increase by the largest amount in over a decade, but fears about storage capacity constraints seem overdone. 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What impact would an Iran-US nuclear deal have on oil prices? A deal between Iran and the West which allows for the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil exports is looking more likely. However, as always, the devil is in the detail. The most likely scenario in... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
