Industrial Metals Update Shifting dynamics in the tin trade Indonesia’s efforts to dictate the tin market look increasingly futile as China finds a new source of tin ore and lifts domestic refined production. However, despite the changing dynamics, the bigger... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The widening in the trade deficit to $46.6bn in December, from $39.8bn, may have wrong-footed the markets (the consensus forecast was $38.0bn). But it was broadly in line with the assumptions that the... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth rate set to recover After slowing in the second half of last year, global growth is likely to gather pace again in the coming quarters. Admittedly, the drop in oil prices since last summer has prompted energy companies... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Oil price rebound does not eliminate chance of deflation The recent rebound in the oil price does not mean that the UK will necessarily avoid a spell of deflation, although it does increase the chance that the spell is brief and shallow. 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The amount of oil being put into storage in the US shows little sign of levelling off as weak consumption, high output and arbitrage activity all add to demand for storage. 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Is deflation good or bad for gold? While the price of gold may well rise further when inflation is high than when it is low, periods of deflation can also be positive for the precious metal. This is because of the financial and... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update European gas prices set to plummet European gas prices have been under downward pressure since early 2014. Given the plunge in oil prices, plentiful LNG supplies and high storage levels, prices should continue to fall in 2015. 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Risks to the price of sugar remain to the downside We expect the price of sugar to remain close to its current level this year due to the continuing glut on the world market. A decision by India to re-introduce export subsidies would push the global... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals prove resistant Given the significant headwinds – a strengthening US dollar, slower growth in China’s industrial sector and the collapse in oil prices – metals prices held their ground well in January. The two... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Partial recovery in oil prices ideal for world economy The recent pick-up in oil prices has the potential to develop into a “Goldilocks” scenario: prices high enough to keep most oil producers in business, but low enough to provide a substantial boost to... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could Norwegian property go from hero to zero in 2015? As oil prices have continued to fall, the prospects for economic growth and occupier demand in the Norwegian property markets have softened. However, with the krone now beginning to look cheap... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Precious metals prove their worth Commodity prices stabilised towards the end of January after sharp falls in oil and copper earlier in the month. The strength of the US dollar and concerns about global growth remain significant... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are low freight costs signalling a wider slowdown? The latest fall in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), taking it to its lowest level since 1986, has added to concerns about the health of global demand. But the BDI is best viewed simply as a guide to the... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More budget cuts likely in Mexico Spending cuts announced by the Mexican government worth 0.7% of GDP are unlikely to be enough to compensate for the loss of oil revenues this year and further spending cuts are likely later this year... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Downsides of lower oil prices are overstated We think that the risks to the public finances and output in the oil and gas sector from lower oil prices are exaggerated. And while investment in the North Sea might suffer, stronger investment in... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold to benefit from revival of Grexit concerns Whether or not Greece ultimately exits the euro, we expect the price of gold to be boosted further this year by the return of safe-haven demand as the country’s financial problems drag on. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
