Precious Metals Update China’s gold accumulation has further to go Today’s confirmation that China has added to its official holdings of gold since 2009 is not necessarily bullish for prices. This is buying that has already taken place and the increase was (arguably)... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Subdued demand will undermine cocoa prices The latest European and North American cocoa grinding data continue to point to subdued demand. Combined with a rebound in Ghanaian production, we think that the price of cocoa will fall this year. 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Assessing the outlook for post-sanctions Iran The recent nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 has rekindled investors’ interest in the Islamic Republic. In this Focus, we take a closer look at the outlook for Iran’s economy and explain... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie? The dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada have been three of the worst-performing major currencies so far this year. Despite the fact that they have already fallen a long way, we expect them to... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Making the case for tin Tin demand is expected to pick up after a weak start to this year, but the main case for higher tin prices lies in a tightening supply profile. We expect ore exports from Myanmar to slip in the second... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Limited scope for further falls in prices Over the past month, precious metal (PM) prices have slumped as the correction in equity prices in China damaged confidence in global commodity markets while investors shrugged off the threat that... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks began falling again last week, but the decline was small, barely making up for the earlier unexpected rises. What’s more, gasoline stocks barely moved despite the US driving season... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sales of China’s cotton stocks to push prices lower The price of cotton has been one of the better performing among agricultural commodities this year. However, we think prices are likely to fall as China seeks to sell its huge cotton reserves. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Iran and the West make a deal, but stumbling blocks remain Today’s announcement of the deal reached between Iran and the West should, eventually, allow Iranian oil exports to return to their previous levels. However, the deal could still be disrupted by... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico oil auctions: what to look for and what they mean Mexico’s government will tomorrow auction rights to private companies to exploit oil reserves in the Gulf of Mexico – a move that marks the first step in opening up the country’s energy sector to... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC keeps the taps firmly on Last month’s increase in supply from OPEC just adds to the glut of oil already in the market. And even with strong growth in demand over the next year, OPEC still expects the market to be well... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi debt issuance aimed at financial market development Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit is likely to reach an eye-watering 17.5% of GDP this year and the government has now turned to the bond market in order to help plug the gap. Some have argued that debt... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update What next for iron ore? After plummeting last week, iron ore prices have stabilised at around $50 per tonne. However, there appears to be little to support prices given that we expect a contraction in China’s steel output... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US oil exports muscle in on an already crowded market Even though we do not expect the restrictions on US crude oil exports to be lifted anytime soon, there is still plenty of scope for exports to grow rapidly. 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower opening corn & soybean stocks mask the bigger picture Although market prices reacted positively to the USDA’s latest WASDE report, there is no evidence to suggest that world grain and soybean supplies are facing a significant tightening. We think the... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s oil imports surge in June China’s commodity import volumes were generally strong in June, although copper imports fell to a four-month low. We think government stimulus and infrastructure spending will boost demand for... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
