Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The latest data show that US oil stocks are climbing at an increasing rate as maintenance work at refineries means that even more oil is funnelled into storage. 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will US energy exports be a game-changer for global markets? A fast-changing regulatory background is becoming increasingly important to global energy markets. In this Energy Watch, we examine how the recent fall in oil prices has affected the outlook for US... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Today’s February PMI data provide further evidence that China’s economy is stabilising. Fading fears of a “hard landing” should therefore support the prices of industrial commodities, especially... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about deflation? Emerging Asia has seen a sharp drop in inflationary pressures over the past few months. Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand are now experiencing deflation, while inflation is 1% y/y or below in Malaysia... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rebound in Brent fails to lift metals prices Even though industrial metals prices were dragged lower by the fall in the price of oil last year, they have yet to benefit from Brent’s recent recovery. Indeed, the futures curves for most industrial... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Election worries hit Nigeria Sentiment towards Nigeria has soured following news that presidential elections scheduled for earlier this month will be postponed until 28th March due to security concerns. We expect that the naira... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response ILZSG Data (2014) The preliminary 2014 data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) show another year of deficit in the global zinc market, while the lead market was effectively in balance. With... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets brush off concerns over Greece Financial markets in Emerging Europe have brushed off renewed concerns over Greece – indeed, equity markets in most countries have rallied over the course of this month and currencies have generally... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: case for interest rate cuts building Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday but a slightly more dovish tone in the accompanying statement, combined with the announcement of budget cuts over the weekend... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly “Grexit” could boost gold now, other commodities later Weather-related factors were responsible for the biggest moves in individual commodity prices in the past week: a cold snap in the US drove up the cost of natural gas, while further rains across key... 20th February 2015 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Surely aluminium premiums have to fall soon? Aluminium price premiums should fall in 2015 based on supply and demand fundamentals. Admittedly, they have not been easy to justify on these grounds for some time. But we think changing dynamics in... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA Weekly Export Sales (12th Feb.) Today’s US weekly export sales data show a further slump in demand for US wheat. And while exports of soybeans also fell sharply, this is likely, at least in part, to be due to seasonal factors... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4) Mexican GDP growth accelerated to 2.6% y/y in the fourth quarter of last year, but the economy has yet to really take off. With fiscal policy set to be tightened further over the course of this year... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jan. 15) World Steel Association (WSA) data for January 2015 showed a fall in global steel output, led by Asian producers. It could be that the oversupply in the Chinese market is at last leading to producer... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Dip into deflation will be brief This week we expect to learn that, principally because of the recent collapse in energy prices, US headline inflation plummeted into negative territory in January. Once the temporary effects from... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Whatever happened to the super-cycle? The much-hyped “super-cycle” of rising commodity prices, driven by rapid growth in China since the early 2000s, probably ended some years ago. Future cycles are likely to be smaller in magnitude, and... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
