Emerging Markets Economics Focus What do lower oil prices mean for the emerging world? The collapse in global oil prices will provide a boost to most economies in the emerging world. However, it will come at the cost of weaker growth in the Middle East, and deep recessions in Russia and... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rise in US oil stocks supports spot prices The surge in US stocks of oil in the last few weeks has been driven at least in part by attempts to arbitrage low spot prices with higher futures ones. This should support prices over the next few... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the recovery fizzle out in 2015? While the UK’s economic recovery has shown some signs of flagging recently, we think its best days may still lie ahead. Admittedly, it has depended on some unsustainable sources and the general... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Outlook for US homebuilding is positive for lumber Stronger economic growth in the US and rising wages should provide a platform for a rebound in the number of housing starts this year, boosting the price of lumber. 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Supply to continue to weigh on iron ore prices The latest quarterly production reports by the large iron ore producers demonstrate a continued commitment to ramp up supply, despite the nearly 50% drop in iron ore prices last year. In this Metals &... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices finding a floor as precious metals rebound The European Central Bank’s decision to launch a large-scale programme of government bond purchases under quantitative easing (QE) is unlikely to provide a major boost to the prices of global... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak demand adds to pressure from ample supply The S&P GSCI Agriculture Commodity Price Index has begun 2015 the same way it finished 2014 – on a downward path. The index has fallen 4% since the start of the year, dragged down by a near 10% drop... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Plunge in oil prices to transform global trade balances The collapse in oil prices is likely to have a much larger impact on world trade than the depreciation of the euro – even if yesterday’s decision by the ECB to launch “full-blown QE” leads to further... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery set to strengthen in 2015 The consumer recovery looks set for another robust year of growth in 2015. Indeed, there are a number of factors which could mean that spending growth accelerates. For a start, the halving in the oil... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver to out-perform gold as both climb further An environment of rising gold prices and improving sentiment towards the global economy should see the price of silver out-perform its fellow precious metal. We are raising our forecasts for silver... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak demand to push the price of cocoa lower Falling cocoa grindings in Europe, North America and Asia suggest that the world has lost some of its sweet tooth. We expect weaker demand and ample supply to push the price of cocoa lower. 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q1 2015) Lower oil prices should provide a welcome boost to incomes, and hence consumption, in large parts of the emerging world. We are particularly upbeat about the outlook for consumers in China, India, the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China and Euro-zone Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Jan) The flash PMIs for China, the euro-zone and Japan all rose in January. Admittedly, the increases were small, but signs of stronger domestic growth in China and a stabilisation in the euro-zone economy... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Limited demand boost from cheaper oil The plunge in crude oil prices since last summer will reduce the cost of Japan’s energy imports by around 2.5% of GDP in the near term. However, much of the windfall will be saved and the boost to... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Lower oil prices to delay rate hikes, but not in Nigeria The dramatic fall in oil prices pushed inflation down in much of Sub-Saharan Africa at the end of last year, and it is likely to slow further this year. This would lead policymakers in some of the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Mine closures to boost lead prices The lead price has mirrored falls in copper in recent months. Whilst demand growth is set to remain unspectacular in 2015, and sentiment may be weak, recent and impending mine closures will provide a... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
