Commodities Update Supply prospects boost cotton but weigh on arabica Agricultural commodities have faced a number of opposing pressures over the last month, including the further strengthening of the US dollar and the partial recovery in the price of crude oil. But... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report There is no sign of a drop off in US oil production in the latest data, nor any pick-up in demand, as US oil stocks surge again. 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lower oil prices start to weigh on FX reserves in the Gulf The plunge in oil prices means that current account positions in parts of the Gulf have slipped from surplus into deficit. In these countries, FX reserves are now being drawn upon to finance external... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How sensitive are gold prices to the Chinese New Year? The demand for gold often follows a seasonal pattern due to the timing of festivals associated with gift-giving, such as the Chinese New Year. But the calendar appears to have little impact on the... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Counting the cost of the Petrobras scandal It’s difficult to be precise, but we think the direct impact of the corruption scandal at Petrobras, including the effects of reduced investment by the company and others that have been implicated... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How are lower oil prices affecting inflation? The drop in global oil prices since mid-2014 will push many advanced economies into deflation, but the trough will vary considerably between economies. And while inflation should rebound rapidly in... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US natural gas to burn brighter this year A combination of lower production and higher demand means that US natural gas prices should rise over the next few years, regardless of the weather. 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Why is gold sliding again? Today’s 2% fall means that gold has now given up most of its price gains from earlier this year. This is perhaps surprising given the ongoing uncertainty over Greece and the conflict in Ukraine, but... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Dwindling surpluses to boost nickel prices Falling ore stocks at China’s ports and lower ore exports from the Philippines are likely to curb Chinese refined nickel output this year. Given steady demand growth, prices should rebound. 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rally in coal prices likely to be short-lived The rally in coal prices this year is unlikely to be the start of a sustained turnaround in fortunes for the beleaguered market. Stronger demand from India may continue to support prices over the next... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What to make of record-low dry freight costs The further decline in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), to its lowest level since the series was first compiled in 1985, provides some more colour on current trends in the supply and demand for ships and... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Venezuela’s currency crisis: a primer The collapse in oil prices will cause the economic and financial crisis in Venezuela to deepen over the course of this year. In this Focus we answer a series of key questions that we have received... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are consumers spending their oil windfall? Although real household incomes among net consumers have been boosted by the fall in oil prices, this has yet to translate into a surge in spending. But we still expect consumption in advanced... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong dollar likely to dent US soybean exports US wheat exports have struggled this year as the rising US dollar reduces competitiveness. We think the same could happen to soybean exports as the South American harvest gets under way. 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Recovery in oil prices may falter soon The rebound in global oil prices has lifted Brent crude back to $61 per barrel, slightly above our existing forecast for the end of the year but consistent with our central scenario of a recovery to... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Gold and silver to shine despite likely US rate hikes It would be wrong to write off gold this year purely on the basis that the Fed is likely to start to raise interest rates, probably in June. We expect the withdrawal of monetary stimulus in the US to... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
