Capital Daily Strait worries grow; bad news still bad news for bonds Although bonds have sometimes rallied after severe oil price shocks, we suspect that’s not on the cards just yet. Meanwhile, flattening yield curves at the “ultra-long” end suggest, among other things... 18th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Tech-led stock market surge looks increasingly fragile Another sharp reversal in US equities after a new all-time high and dotcom bubble parallels at every turn make the fragility of this rally clear. We think AI sentiment can lift the market further this... 15th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Markets aren’t braced for an ‘extreme’ scenario in the Iran war The Iran war poses two key threats to the global economy – higher inflation and weaker growth. Up until now, the markets have responded to the first but seemingly ignored – or at least ‘looked through... 14th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Looking beneath the AI rally A look under the hood of the US stock market suggests that the ongoing rally has been accompanied by some unusual dynamics. That doesn’t mean the rally is unsustainable, but it suggests some near-term... 13th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt mess still more about global problems than Starmer The surge in long-term Gilt yields over recent weeks owes as much to the rise in energy prices as it does to the UK’s latest political melodrama. On both fronts, it looks increasingly as though things... 12th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Strait still closed; Trump goes to China; Starmer clings on Neither US-Iran negotiations nor the Trump-Xi summit appear to offer much cause for cheer, and UK politics are inching towards another precipice, but equity markets appear determined to party on. 11th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Why the labour market won’t stop the stock market juggernaut Today’s US Employment Report painted a picture of a labour market that is neither tight enough nor loose enough to derail the stock market. 8th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Greenback will regain its footing even if peace deal materialises At face value, the dollar’s weakness over recent days is unsurprising given growing hopes of a US-Iran peace deal and the consequent drop in energy prices. But we think that the renewed outperformance... 7th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US-Iran peace: fifth time the charm for markets? Financial markets have responded strongly to signs that the US-Iran conflict may end soon. We think government bonds have further to rally than most assets given how far they still are from pre-war... 6th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Tech stocks versus oil, bonds versus central banks Tech stocks have continued to power ahead despite renewed concerns around the war, but we don’t think they’re completely immune to it. Meanwhile, central bank inaction could be a threat to bond... 5th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The jury remains out on the AI CapEx splurge The mixed reaction to this week’s earnings releases from four US hyperscalers was a reminder of how sensitive investors have become to the firms’ plans for capital spending (CapEx), given the huge... 1st May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Policymakers do their part, but oil prices still driving bond markets Policymakers talking (and, in Japan, acting) tough may help to shore up market confidence and buy time until a resolution to the crisis in the Gulf materialises. But financial markets remain in large... 30th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Two threats to bonds that aren’t rate hikes or fiscal crises With the major central banks lining up to talk tough on inflation this week, and investors on edge about fiscal problems in many places, we think there are some other growing medium-term risks facing... 29th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the recent surge in semiconductors? This month’s surge in semiconductor share indices mainly seems to reflect signs of growing demand for CPUs used for AI inference and a related need for more high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. 28th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Risk rally on borrowed time while the Strait remains closed If the diplomatic and military stalemate between the US and Iran continues, and the Strait of Hormuz remain largely closed, policymakers and market participants will find it increasingly difficult to... 27th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Broad-based small cap outperformance may continue A storming rally in the tech sector has obscured the fact that the average US small cap has markedly beaten the average large cap over recent weeks. We think this trend has a bit further to run. 24th April 2026 · 4 mins read
