Capital Daily Reliance on tech is a double-edged sword The S&P 500’s reliance on big-tech sectors to drive returns is clearly problematic when sentiment towards those sectors sours, as has happened today. But we think this reliance will ultimately... 4th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily AI rally keeps on trucking in spite of the Fed A more hawkish tone from the Fed and a mixed reaction to recent big tech earnings reports presents another potential speedbump for risky assets. Ultimately, we think continued robust US growth... 3rd November 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the mixed reaction to this week’s big-tech results The mixed reaction to this week’s news from some of the US hyperscalers may reflect growing concern about the cost of the AI arms race. But our forecast is that the big-tech sectors will fuel more... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The Fed, the BoJ, the ECB, and the bond market The Fed and the BoJ sent their respective government bond markets in different directions earlier today, but we expect yields in both places to rise over time. By contrast, while the ECB is likely to... 30th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Earnings results could trump the Fed The market reaction to news around US-Asia trade is yet another reminder of how crucial the AI narrative is for the stock market and, accordingly, how significant big tech earnings results today and... 29th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Takaichi, Bessent and the yen tug of war The Japanese yen has rebounded a bit today on the back of US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s latest foray into verbal currency intervention (this time in favour of the yen), but it remains near its... 28th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily ‘Au’ revoir, gold We doubt the recent pull-back in the price of gold will be unwound. Indeed, our new forecast is that the price will fall to $3,500/oz. by the end of 2026. 27th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Squaring inflation and rate cut expectations While delayed US inflation data for September have seemingly made a Fed rate cut next week all but certain, we still think the growth and inflation backdrop are consistent with the Fed cutting rates... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing spillovers from US oil sanctions Although news of fresh US sanctions on Russia’s energy sector has sparked a jump in oil prices, the feedthrough to bond and equity markets has been limited and we expect that this will remain the case... 23rd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily ‘Takaichinomics’ and Japan’s financial markets Japan’s new Prime Minister is a strong supporter of the ‘Abenomics’ reforms that had a big effect on the country’s financial markets a bit over a decade ago. But we think they – especially JGBs and... 22nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the US private credit “bubble” The US equity market has recovered its poise over the past couple of days after recent jitters around the regional banking sector, but the concerns around credit losses may linger. Even if... 21st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fool's gold? The price of gold has arguably risen so far above ‘fair’ value that it might come crashing down soon. 20th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of regional bank jitters Although the dramatic fall in the share prices of US regional banks has sparked memories of the 2023 mini banking crisis, the backdrop is very different this time. We don’t think these jitters are... 17th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How the AI boom is concentrating S&P 500 earnings growth As the US Q3 reporting season gets underway, here’s a sobering observation: the ‘big-tech’ sectors – information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary – have accounted for... 16th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The implications of Japan’s political turmoil for its markets We don’t think the political drama in Japan will be a drag on the country’s bond and stock markets and may, in the near term, even give them a boost. 15th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US Treasury yields unlikely to drop much further The sharp fall in interest rate expectations and long-term government bond yields over recent days in response to renewed US-China tensions has brough the 10-year Treasury yield to around its lowest... 14th October 2025 · 4 mins read
