Event ANZ Drop-In: Australian Q3 CPI and the timing of RBA rate cuts 30th October 2024, 2:00AM GMT Australia is exceptional. Monetary easing cycles may be in full swing in many advanced economies, but the Reserve Bank shows no appetite to cut rates yet. Even though headline and core inflation are…
Capital Daily Assessing the relative prospects for EM equities The recent outperformance of emerging market equities, relative to their developed market peers, has almost entirely reversed in October and we think this may be a sign of things to come. 21st October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Are markets starting to price in a Trump win? With the US election drawing closer and former president Trump’s perceived chances of winning on the rise, financial markets may be starting to shift towards discounting a Trump win. But, in our view... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily ECB easing unlikely to ease peripheral fiscal concerns The dovish tone at today’s ECB monetary policy meeting supports our view that the ECB will cut by 25bp at the December meeting. However, the risks to our policy rate forecasts are increasingly skewed... 17th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think most DM yields will stay put through 2025 Falling inflation across developed markets (DM) supports our view that policy rates will generally settle at their neutral levels, close to current market pricing in most DMs. That’s why we expect... 16th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still think the tech rebound has further to run Notwithstanding some weakness today, enthusiasm for tech stocks has returned in recent weeks. We think this enthusiasm will drive the US stock market higher, despite the optimism that is already... 15th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Another turning point for China’s stock market? China’s authorities are clearly making an effort to boost the country’s stock market, despite some seeming missteps. But we doubt any further gains will survive very long into next year. 14th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the Budget will prevent Gilts from rallying We think that the larger rise in yields in the UK than elsewhere over the past month is due to expectations that the Budget will boost demand rather than fiscal fears. That said, there is some upside... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily CPI upside surprise may not lead to higher UST yields The initial market reaction to today’s release of US inflation for September and jobless claims data suggests to us that investors may be more concerned about the latter than about the former. We... 10th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on antitrust & the US stock market Market participants have largely shrugged off the news that the US Department of Justice (DoJ) may seek a court-ordered break up of Google. Given the snail’s pace at which the US antitrust process... 9th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Reality check for China’s stock market: What’s next? China’s offshore equity market plunged today as the latest policy announcement from Beijing disappointed expectations. With much of the low hanging fruit (as far as valuations are concerned) now... 8th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US market optimism may have further to run The optimism across US equity and corporate bond markets as the labour market proves resilient makes sense to us. We think it will continue, providing a tailwind for those assets. 7th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What next for Treasuries after blockbuster payrolls? The strong reading on the US labour market released today has taken the 10-year Treasury yield towards our end-2024 forecast of 4%. We expect it to stay around this level, though the risks to the... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We see more weakness in GBP, notably against EUR The British pound fell sharply today, and we suspect that it will weaken more over the next year or so given our dovish view of Bank of England policy, the currency’s still-high valuation, and... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of markets & the Mideast escalation While the latest escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran is worrying, our view remains that it would take a significant further widening of the war, including actual disruption to energy... 2nd October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Oil spikes, but not yet a concern for central banks Brent crude oil has jumped by around 4% to ~$74.5pb at the time of writing, following reports that Iran is preparing a ballistic missile strike against Israel. Much remains uncertain. A key issue – if... 1st October 2024 · 5 mins read
