Capital Daily We think equities and oil will go their own ways for a while Although softening global demand for oil has pushed the Brent Crude price to a near three year low, we don’t think the global economic outlook will prevent strong equity gains. 10th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A few thoughts on the “Fed Put” & markets Further mixed-to-weak US economic data and sharp falls in the equity markets last week means that, rightly or wrongly, the so-called “Fed put” is now back in the spotlight. Our sense is that it would... 9th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the post-payroll market jitters are overdone Although today’s news about the US labour market disappointed investors, we think it is in line with higher Treasury yields and a rebound in US stocks. 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of yield curve “disinversion” The Treasury yield curve has steepened in recent weeks amid growing recession concerns, but we doubt one will materialise this time. We expect the curve to steepen further over the next year or so... 5th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Could the stock market ride out a recession? Investors' concerns about the health of the US economy have intensified again, contributing to a selloff in global equity markets. The US stock market rode out an earnings recession last year thanks... 4th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How does S&P 500 sector performance align with the ISM? A disappointingly small rebound in the headline index of the US ISM manufacturing survey for August appears to have put some relative pressure on cyclical sectors of the S&P 500 today, which is down... 3rd September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will the slump in Chinese equities ever end? Chinese equities have tumbled today, and while we see scope for them to recover a bit in the coming months, we are quite pessimistic about their medium-to-long term prospects. 2nd September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What if the Fed and the ECB underdeliver? US and euro-zone inflation data released today did little to change our view that both the Fed and the ECB will cut interest rates by 25bp in September, as investors seem to expect. But we think both... 30th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Nvidia and whether the AI rally has run out of steam We think the AI rally has further to run, despite investors’ apparent disappointment with Nvidia’s rapid profit growth. 29th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily UK interest rate exceptionalism unlikely to last The ongoing reassessment of the monetary policy outlook in the US and Europe has (again) made the UK look like an outlier. We doubt that will last. 28th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Banking on a soft landing It’s perhaps surprising that financials have outperformed the S&P 500 during the recent bout of market turbulence. (See Chart 1.) After all, Treasury yields have fallen and the outlook for the US... 27th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Dovish Powell not necessarily good news for stocks Fed Chair Powell’s dovish keynote speech at the Jackson Hole conference today has reinforced the sense that not only are FOMC rate cuts imminent, but they may also be front-loaded. That suggests... 23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rising Treasury yields may not help the dollar Even though Treasury yields have edged up today ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow, we think there’s still some scope for them to rise further, as we think too much easing is now... 22nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Has the dam finally broken for Asian FX? We think Asian currencies will generally continue to rise against the US dollar over time, albeit perhaps not quite as quickly as they have lately. 21st August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Reviewing the recent round trip in markets Nearly all of the pullback in the S&P 500 since the bout of rotation in the stock market began in the wake of June’s CPI report on 11th July has now been reversed. Admittedly, the same cannot be said... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Strong yen may not keep weighing on Japanese stocks While we expect the yen to rise further this year and next, we think this won’t stop Japanese stocks from making gains, even in local-currency terms. 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
