Capital Daily Carry trade trouble need not pop the equity bubble Despite the possibility that the unwinding of the yen “carry trade” has amplified the global stock market sell-off lately, we think equity prices could rebound even if the yen continued to strengthen. 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think big-tech stocks will return to the top We think that, in the absence of a recession, “big tech” stocks will regain the lead before long, regardless of the pace of falling inflation. 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Big-tech results and rotation Today’s sell-off in the US stock market in the wake of a poor reception to yesterday’s results from the first two members of the ‘Magnificent 7’ to report during this earnings season is likely to have... 24th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US banks may rally further We think there are a number of factors supporting the recent rally in US bank shares, not just the rotation out of tech stocks. So, while we doubt this rotation is here to stay, we think bank stocks... 23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Whither the “Trump-trade” post-Biden? President Joe Biden’s decision to drop his re-election bid adds another element of uncertainty to the election campaign, but it is unlikely, by itself, to alter the calculus facing market participants... 22nd July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing two threats to Japan’s stock market We expect Japan’s stock market to continue to struggle in yen terms, but to fare better in US dollar terms over the rest of the year. 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily ECB overshadowed by French politics Investors’ expectations for ECB rate cuts have not changed much over recent months and today’s meeting did little to change that. Instead, euro-zone assets have been influenced more by French politics... 18th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Four points on rotation A recent surge in the Russell 2000 after the US CPI report for June was published last week has prompted claims that we are entering the initial stage of a secular rotation into US small-cap stocks... 17th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yield curve inversion nears its end? We expect short-term US Treasury yields to keep falling more rapidly than long-term ones, eventually putting an end to more than two years of an inverted yield curve. 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Four key points on Trump & financial markets Recent events have increased the perceived likelihood of another Trump presidency and, in the process, provided a clearer steer on how market participants expect such an outcome to affect key... 15th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the market fallout from that inflation print We think the rally in Treasuries and pullback in the dollar since US CPI data was released yesterday have further to run. But we doubt the big rotation within equities yesterday is a sign of things to... 12th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Could the economy burst this bubble? Another fairly encouraging US CPI report seems unlikely to blow the buoyant S&P 500 far off course given the implications for Fed policy. Indeed, it strengthens the case for a rate cut in September. 11th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Corporate bonds likely to keep trailing equities We think that corporate bonds will continue to underperform equities, as credit spreads are already low, economic growth moderates, and equities benefit more from enthusiasm about AI. 10th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still think the euro will fare well against the pound In the wake of the political tumult in France contrasting with newfound stability in the UK, the outlook for the exchange rate between the euro and sterling has come into spotlight. We think that... 9th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Wait-and-see in markets as France avoids far-right PM The surprising results of the French legislative elections have not triggered much of a market reaction. While investors appear to have been relieved by the far-right National Rally (RN)’s failure to... 8th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields could fall further still, but not the dollar We expect Treasury yields to fall a bit further, but we doubt that will lead to a weaker dollar. 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
