Capital Daily We think a US “soft landing” will let equities take off The relief felt in markets over the past week or so as worries about the US economy have dissipated makes sense to us. So we expect the rebound in equity markets to continue. 16th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the outlook for China’s stocks and bonds We think there is better news on China’s economy in the pipeline that could underpin a rally in its lowly valued stock market. But in our view there is less scope for gains in China’s bonds. 15th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Has inflation optimism gone too far? The muted reaction to today’s US CPI data reflects that most investors already expected inflation to fall to around 2% before long and remain there. But last week’s turmoil highlighted that when... 14th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How vulnerable are US equities to a recession? The further rally in stock markets today leaves both valuations and earnings looking consistent with a “soft landing” in the US. So it would not take much for equities to struggle if the economy were... 13th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily A yen for stability While a big reduction in speculative positioning against the Japanese currency may mean that future moves in global financial markets will be less extreme than recent ones, it doesn’t preclude more... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Weaker MXN no major concern for Banxico, nor for us At Banxico’s meeting yesterday, worries over the weakness in the Mexican economy outweighed concerns over the sell-off in the Mexican peso and prompted the central bank to restart its easing cycle... 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the recent market turmoil Financial markets have generally now unwound about half of the big moves from late last week and early this week, helped by jobless claims data today soothing concerns over a US economic recession. In... 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is the yen’s rally – and all that went with it – over? We’re not so sure the yen’s gains are done, even though it sagged earlier today. 7th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of turnaround Tuesday in Tokyo Sentiment has improved in Asian markets today, especially in Japan where equities have rallied very strongly. We think there are a few observations worth noting of relevance for global markets. 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Two questions (and answers) on today’s Asian market drama The yen surged today, and some Asian equity indices plunged, as investors worried about a “hard landing” in the US economy. We think there are two key questions to consider. 5th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the US economy will stall the equity rally for long Renewed fears of a US recession have increased the chances of additional rate cuts from the Fed. But we don’t think that the US economy will stand in the way of an equity rally for much longer. 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What’s next for markets as BoE cuts and Fed gets close Bond yields have fallen in the US and the UK after the Fed signalled an imminent rate cut and the Bank of England delivered one. But only in the UK do we see more room down for yields. 1st August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What a hawkish BoJ might mean for markets Today’s decision by the BoJ to tighten policy by more than discounted in the markets was accompanied by a stronger yen, higher bond yields and a rise in the stock market. However, we don’t think these... 31st July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily ECB still likely to cut in September despite mixed data Today’s release of inflation and activity data for the euro-zone has in our view slightly reduced the chances of a cut from the ECB at its next meeting. However, the bigger picture is that the data... 30th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The market implications of the UK’s spending shortfall The lack of much reaction on net in markets to today’s statement by the UK’s new Chancellor suggests to us that investors remain confident in the Labour Party’s commitment to fiscal discipline. But... 29th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Carry trade trouble need not pop the equity bubble Despite the possibility that the unwinding of the yen “carry trade” has amplified the global stock market sell-off lately, we think equity prices could rebound even if the yen continued to strengthen. 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
