Capital Daily

Policy sugar rush may only take Chinese equities so far

New measures to support China’s property sector have brought more cheer to Chinese equities. But, while we continue to think they will fare well in the coming months, we ultimately expect them to lose...

17th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

“Big tech” stocks may be the crown jewel again before long

Although the “big-tech” sectors have been out of favour compared to others so far this quarter, we expect them to regain the lead before long and help the US stock market outperform those elsewhere.

16th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

US inflation relief for both Treasuries & equities

Better news on US inflation over the past couple of days has provided further relief for bond and equity markets, and supports our forecast that Treasury yields will fall back a bit more over the...

15th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

What to make of renewed interest in ‘meme’ stocks

Even if interest in ‘meme’ stocks rebounds following a renewed surge in GameStop’s share price, some of the telltale signs that a bubble in the broader stock market may be entering its final stages –...

14th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

JGB yields may keep going it alone, helping the yen

While we expect government bond yields in most developed markets to fall back, we think that those in Japan will stabilise around their current levels. In turn, we anticipate that interest rate...

13th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

LatAm currencies may weaken despite hawkish bias

The hawkish tone of Latin American central banks this week supports our view that loosening cycles in the region will proceed more gradually than many anticipate. But even so, we think most Latin...

10th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Scope for Gilt yields and sterling to fall further

Policymakers at the Bank of England (BoE) are edging closer to easing policy, and we still think they will cut Bank Rate by more than widely anticipated. In turn, we expect this will weigh on Gilt...

9th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

The balancing act of a stronger yen for Japan’s markets

We expect Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to rise a bit and the yen to come off the boil later this year, creating a headwind for equities there.

8th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Credit spreads can’t fall forever

The near-relentless narrowing in US credit spreads over the past year or so has left them at their lowest levels since late 2021. This echoes similarly upbeat pricing in the stock market. But, while...

7th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Employment Report provides some cheer for markets

Today’s favourable reaction in the US stock market to April's softer-than-expected Employment Report has coincided with renewed hopes of interest rate cuts, judging by the initial plunge in the 2-year...

3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Powell’s cautious message points to lower UST yields

This week’s FOMC meeting supports our view that bond yields will fall back a bit further this year.

2nd May 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Taking stock of the recent surge in Treasury yields

We doubt the recent rise in US bond yields will continue much further, or significantly undermine the prospects of US equities.

1st May 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

What’s next for Chinese financial markets?

While we expect Chinese bonds and equities to make more gains in the near term, we think the outlook further ahead is not as bright for the latter.

30th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

What to make of the latest swings in the yen

Japan’s apparent intervention in support of the beleaguered yen may buy some time for the currency to stabilise, but is unlikely to lead to sustained turnaround until US interest rate expectations...

29th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Higher yields no insurmountable obstacle for the NASDAQ

The NASDAQ 100 has shrugged off this week’s surge in real US Treasury yields amid a mixed bag of earnings reports from some of the ‘Magnificent 7’. (See Chart 1.) This suggests to us that the earlier...

26th April 2024 · 5 mins read