Capital Daily Is the India/China equity market narrative shifting? We think China’s equities could fare better than those in India in the near term. Note: We will be discussing the outlook for Chinese equities in a special 20-minute online briefing on Thursday 4th... 3rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will rising Treasury yields keep equities down? The sharp rise in Treasury yields this week has probably contributed to the sell-off in US equities, but it isn’t the only factor. And even if Treasury yields remain high, we doubt that would prevent... 2nd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Q2 could be a good one for equities and bonds Equities have enjoyed another strong quarter and, while a lot of good news is priced in, we think they can extend their winning streak. Sovereign bonds have, by contrast, struggled over Q1; but we... 28th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We see little room for credit spreads to fall further We think the bulk of the fall in corporate credit spreads is now in the rearview mirror, especially in the US. 27th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily UK equities may keep doing well, but not outperform While we think that equities in the UK will continue to rise over the next couple of years, we suspect they will keep underperforming those in the US, and we see little scope for valuations to help... 26th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A few more thoughts on the renminbi conundrum Push-back from the authorities in China and Japan has stabilised their currencies against the US dollar today, and our base case remains that policymakers will prevent destabilising depreciations in... 25th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the latest drop in the renminbi While the current backdrop may keep the renminbi on the back foot against the dollar in the short term, we doubt that these headwinds will push the currency meaningfully lower this year. 22nd March 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The doves have it – what next for markets? This week’s flurry of central bank meeting points to growing confidence among policymakers in most major economies that inflation is on track back to target. That supports our view that long-term... 21st March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How the Fed might – or might not – affect the markets Our view that Treasury yields will fall back a bit and that the US dollar will generally weaken by the end of the year rests on the assumption that the Fed will deliver more rate cuts than currently... 20th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What follows negative interest rates for Japan’s markets? The Bank of Japan ended its eight-year run of negative interest rates today . We think there are several implications for Japanese – and global – financial markets. 19th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Will the equity risk premium disappear? Given our view that a stock market bubble will inflate in the US, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the equity risk premium (ERP) shrinking further in the near term. This might even go as far as the... 18th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The renminbi looks weak and we think it will rally We think that, despite ongoing PBOC intervention to prop it up, the valuation of the renminbi looks very weak on a range of fundamental metrics. As such, we wouldn’t be surprised if it rose over time... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Consumer confidence and the stock market It is no surprise that the confidence of US consumers is closely aligned to the health of the stock market these days. After all, the share of households that own equities is the highest in at least... 14th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Headwinds likely to persist for LatAm equities and FX Most major equity markets and currencies in Latin America have lagged those in other regions since the start of the year, and we expect their underperformance to continue for some time. 13th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Investors are right not to fret too much about inflation Stronger-than-expected US core CPI data did not trigger as big a reassessment in rate expectations as they did last month in financial markets, and we still forecast the Fed to start easing policy... 12th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The yen also rises (finally)? The surge of the Japanese yen ahead of next week’s BoJ policy announcement could still prove yet another false dawn. But with the monetary policy divergence that has driven the yen down over the past... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
